Marseille3 - 2Lyon
Marseille1 trades, 100% precision — how did AI read this match?
Match Overview
Marseille hosted Lyon in the Ligue 1, finishing 3-2. Goals: C. Tolisso (3'), I. Paixao (52'), R. Himbert (76'), P. Aubameyang (81'), P. Aubameyang (90'). OddsFlow deployed 1 trades across 1 wave, achieving 100% precision with a net result of +$205.00 (ROI: +102.5%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at -0.5 but home odds shifted from 2 to 2.07; the Over/Under line shifted from 2.75 to 2.5.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 18' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Lyon leading 0-1 at 18'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Marseille +0.25. Average expected value was 9.6%, with a combined stake of $200. The sharpest edge was on Marseille +0.25 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 59.0% probability versus the market's implied 49.4% — a 9.6 percentage point gap at odds of 2.025. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$205.00.
Model Performance
- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 1W/0L, +$205.00 (ROI: +102.5%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 53%–47% in Marseille's favor. Marseille had 18 shots (7 on target) versus Lyon's 12 (6 on target). Expected goals: Marseille 1.98 — Lyon 1.2. Corners: 8-1.
Verdict
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +102.5% ROI.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Home | 48.5% / 27.6% / 26.8% |
| Asian handicap | -0.5 | 48.3% |
| Over / Under | 2.5 | 52.1% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
Significant Value Signal on Over 2.5 Goals.
The match between Marseille and Lyon concluded with a 3-2 victory for Marseille, resulting in a total of 5 goals. In the 1x2 market, Marseille entered as the favorites with an implied win probability of 48.54%, validating their victory. On the Asian Handicap line of -0.5, Marseille successfully covered the spread, despite the market assigning them a slightly lower 48.31% chance to do so, indicating a minor undervaluation. However, the most significant market inefficiency was observed in the Goals Over/Under market. With a closing line of 2.5 and the market leaning towards the Over with a 52.08% probability, the actual total of 5 goals significantly outperformed this expectation. This suggests a strong EV+ value signal on the Over 2.5 market.
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +102.5% ROI on 1 trades.
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