Marseille

1 - 2

Lille

Marseille hosted Lille in the Ligue 1, finishing 1-2. Goals: E. Nwaneri (43'), T. Meunier (49'), O. Giroud (86'). OddsFlow deployed 19 trades across 6 waves, achieving 58% precision with a net result of +$2351.35 (ROI: +24.4%).

The Asian Handicap held at -0.5 but home odds shifted from 1.94 to 1.88; the Over/Under stayed at 2.75 with Over odds moving from 1.98 to 2.07.

### Wave 1 — Minute 25' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 25'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Moneyline and Asian Handicap markets, targeting Marseille and Marseille -0.5. Average expected value was 9.6%, with a combined stake of $2000. The sharpest edge was on Marseille (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 55.6% probability versus the market's implied 48.8% — a 6.8 percentage point gap at odds of 2.05. **Result:** All 4 trades lost, netting $-2000.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 30' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 30'. 3 models (system4_HYBRID_v10, system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Moneyline and Asian Handicap markets, targeting Marseille and Lille 0 and Marseille -0.5. Average expected value was 10.8%, with a combined stake of $2500. The sharpest edge was on Lille 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 46.7% probability versus the market's implied 38.5% — a 8.2 percentage point gap at odds of 2.6. **Result:** 3 of 5 trades won, netting +$1400.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 36' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 36'. 1 model (system4_MC_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Draw. Average expected value was 6.0%, with a combined stake of $500. The sharpest edge was on Draw (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 33.3% probability versus the market's implied 26.7% — a 6.6 percentage point gap at odds of 3.75. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-500.00. ### Wave 4 — Minute 43' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Marseille leading 1-0 at 43'. E. Nwaneri scored moments ago. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Over/Under and Asian Handicap markets, targeting Over 1.5 and Lille -1. Average expected value was 29.0%, with a combined stake of $2119. The sharpest edge was on Lille -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 87.1% probability versus the market's implied 46.5% — a 40.6 percentage point gap at odds of 2.15. **Result:** All 4 trades won, netting +$2013.85. ### Wave 5 — Minute 49' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1 after T. Meunier's equalizer at 49'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Over/Under and Moneyline markets, targeting Over 2.5 and Draw. Average expected value was 19.1%, with a combined stake of $1500. The sharpest edge was on Over 2.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 70.0% probability versus the market's implied 47.6% — a 22.4 percentage point gap at odds of 2.1. **Result:** 2 of 3 trades won, netting +$600.00. ### Wave 6 — Minute 57' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Marseille leading 1-0 at 57'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Lille -0.5. Average expected value was 13.5%, with a combined stake of $1000. The sharpest edge was on Lille -0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 66.2% probability versus the market's implied 54.1% — a 12.1 percentage point gap at odds of 1.85. **Result:** All 2 trades won, netting +$837.50.

- **Minute 44'** — Asian Handicap Lille -1: AI saw 87.1% vs market's 46.5% (40.6pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 44'** — Asian Handicap Lille -1: AI saw 86.2% vs market's 46.5% (39.7pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 49'** — Over/Under Over 2.5: AI saw 70.0% vs market's 47.6% (22.4pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 49'** — Over/Under Over 2.5: AI saw 70.0% vs market's 47.6% (22.4pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 43'** — Over/Under Over 1.5: AI saw 70.0% vs market's 57.9% (12.1pp gap). correctly identified.

- **system4_MC_v10**: 8 trades, 5W/3L, +$1288.25 (ROI: +31.7%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 8 trades, 5W/3L, +$1263.10 (ROI: +31.2%) - **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 3 trades, 1W/2L, $-200.00 (ROI: -13.3%)

Possession was 54%–46% in Marseille's favor. Marseille had 14 shots (3 on target) versus Lille's 11 (4 on target). Expected goals: Marseille 0.6 — Lille 0.97. Corners: 5-4.