Marseille1 - 0Auxerre
MarseilleWhy did AI enter 3 times at 25', 51', 67' — and still finish $-794?
Match Overview
Marseille hosted Auxerre in the Ligue 1, finishing 1-0. Goals: A. Gouiri (79'). OddsFlow deployed 10 trades across 3 waves, achieving 40% precision with a net result of $-794.34 (ROI: -13.6%).
Pre-Match Odds
Pre-match odds showed minimal movement.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 25' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 25'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Marseille. Average expected value was 11.6%, with a combined stake of $1010. **Result:** All 2 trades won, netting +$672.66. ### Wave 2 — Minute 51' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 51'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Moneyline markets, targeting Auxerre -1 and Draw and Auxerre -0.5. Average expected value was 20.9%, with a combined stake of $3823. The sharpest edge was on Auxerre -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 84.8% probability versus the market's implied 47.6% — a 37.2 percentage point gap at odds of 2.1. **Result:** 0 of 6 trades won, netting $-2000.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 67' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 67'. Marseille made 4 substitutions. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Over 0.5. Average expected value was 8.0%, with a combined stake of $1000. **Result:** All 2 trades won, netting +$533.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 51'** — Asian Handicap Auxerre -1: AI saw 84.8% vs market's 47.6% (37.2pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 51'** — Asian Handicap Auxerre -1: AI saw 84.9% vs market's 47.6% (37.2pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 51'** — Moneyline Draw: AI saw 42.2% vs market's 22.2% (20.0pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 51'** — Moneyline Draw: AI saw 33.7% vs market's 22.2% (11.5pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.
Model Performance
- **system4_MC_v10**: 5 trades, 2W/2L/1V, $-393.84 (ROI: -13.5%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 5 trades, 2W/2L/1V, $-400.50 (ROI: -13.8%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 58%–42% in Marseille's favor. Marseille had 16 shots (3 on target) versus Auxerre's 8 (3 on target). Expected goals: Marseille 0.88 — Auxerre 0.31. Corners: 9-2.
Verdict
A tough session at -13.6% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions, though the underlying probability assessments may still prove correct over a larger sample. Top performer: system4_MC_v10 at $-393.84.
A tough session at -13.6% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions. Top performer: HDP Sniper at $-393.84.
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