Lyon4 - 2Rennes
LyonWhat the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Home | 46.5% / 26.0% / 30.3% |
| Asian handicap | -0.25 | 53.2% |
| Over / Under | 3 | 51.8% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
Bookmakers significantly underestimated the goal-scoring potential, leading to an undervalued 'Over 3 goals' line.
The match between Lyon and Rennes concluded 4-2, resulting in a decisive home win. In the 1x2 market, Lyon was correctly identified as the market favorite with a 46.51% implied probability, and they secured the victory. For the Asian Handicap, Lyon at -0.25 was also favored to cover at 53.19%, which they comfortably did with a two-goal margin. The most notable market inefficiency emerged in the Totals (Over/Under) market. Despite a closing line of 3 goals with a slight lean towards the Over (51.81%), the actual total goals reached 6, signifying a substantial undervaluation of the 'Over' bet. This represents a clear EV+ signal for the Over 3 goals.
No entry signals — model found no valuable odds
Our AI analyzed Asian Handicap and Over/Under markets in real-time but did not detect sufficient edge.
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