Lyon2 - 0Nice
LyonWhat went wrong? 1 trades, $-56 — the AI's post-mortem.
Match Overview
Lyon hosted Nice in the Ligue 1, finishing 2-0. Goals: C. Tolisso (45'), N. Nartey (64'), N. Nartey (65'). OddsFlow deployed 1 trades across 1 wave, achieving 0% precision with a net result of $-55.54 (ROI: -100.0%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap line moved from -1 to -0.75; the Over/Under stayed at 2.75 with Over odds moving from 1.92 to 2; the home moneyline drifted out from 1.57 to 1.81.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 29' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 29'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Nice -0.25. Average expected value was 2.3%, with a combined stake of $56. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-55.54.
Model Performance
- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 0W/1L, $-55.54 (ROI: -100.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 56%–44% in Lyon's favor. Lyon had 9 shots (2 on target) versus Nice's 9 (3 on target). Expected goals: Lyon 1.32 — Nice 1.23. Corners: 8-5.
Verdict
A tough session at -100.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions, though the underlying probability assessments may still prove correct over a larger sample.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Home | 55.3% / 26.2% / 21.4% |
| Asian handicap | -0.75 | 48.8% |
| Over / Under | 2.75 | 50.0% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
Underestimated Home -0.75 Handicap Coverage
Lyon secured a convincing 2-0 victory over Nice. In the 1x2 market, the closing line correctly priced Lyon as the favorite (55.25% implied probability), aligning with the actual outcome. However, the Asian Handicap market showed a clear inefficiency. Lyon at -0.75 had only a 48.78% implied probability to cover, yet they comfortably secured the win by a two-goal margin. This represents a significant Closing Line Value (CLV) opportunity for bettors who backed Lyon -0.75. The Totals (O/U 2.75) market was more efficient, with the market leaning towards the "Under" (52.36% probability), which proved correct with only 2 total goals scored. Overall, the biggest market error was the underestimation of Lyon's ability to cover the handicap.
A tough session at -100.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions.
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