Lyon

1 - 2

Monaco

Lyon hosted Monaco in the Ligue 1, finishing 1-2. Goals: P. Sulc (42'), M. Akliouche (62'), F. Balogun (72' pen). Lyon received a red card (N. Tagliafico, 89'). OddsFlow deployed 17 trades across 4 waves, achieving 65% precision with a net result of +$3553.60 (ROI: +36.1%).

The Asian Handicap line moved from 0 to 0.25; the home moneyline drifted out from 2.66 to 2.94.

### Wave 1 — Minute 25' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 25'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Moneyline markets, targeting Monaco 0 and Lyon. Average expected value was 8.7%, with a combined stake of $1500. The sharpest edge was on Monaco 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 58.3% probability versus the market's implied 50.0% — a 8.3 percentage point gap at odds of 2. **Result:** 2 of 3 trades won, netting +$487.50. ### Wave 2 — Minute 35' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 35'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Moneyline and Asian Handicap markets, targeting Draw and Monaco 0. Average expected value was 6.8%, with a combined stake of $1500. The sharpest edge was on Monaco 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 61.7% probability versus the market's implied 54.8% — a 6.9 percentage point gap at odds of 1.825. **Result:** 1 of 3 trades won, netting $-587.50. ### Wave 3 — Minute 41' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 41'. 3 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_HYBRID_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Moneyline markets, targeting Monaco -0.5 and Lyon and Monaco -1. Average expected value was 24.4%, with a combined stake of $5338. The sharpest edge was on Monaco -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 91.0% probability versus the market's implied 58.8% — a 32.2 percentage point gap at odds of 1.7. **Result:** 6 of 8 trades won, netting +$3011.60. ### Wave 4 — Minute 62' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1 after M. Akliouche's equalizer at 62'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Over/Under and Moneyline markets, targeting Over 2.5 and Draw. Average expected value was 20.1%, with a combined stake of $1500. The sharpest edge was on Over 2.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 70.0% probability versus the market's implied 42.1% — a 27.9 percentage point gap at odds of 2.375. **Result:** 2 of 3 trades won, netting +$642.00.

- **Minute 42'** — Asian Handicap Monaco -1: AI saw 91.0% vs market's 58.8% (32.2pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 42'** — Asian Handicap Monaco -1: AI saw 90.6% vs market's 58.8% (31.8pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 42'** — Asian Handicap Monaco -1: AI saw 90.0% vs market's 58.8% (31.2pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 62'** — Over/Under Over 2.5: AI saw 70.0% vs market's 42.1% (27.9pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 41'** — Asian Handicap Monaco -0.5: AI saw 62.6% vs market's 42.6% (20.1pp gap). correctly identified.

- **system4_BLEND_v10**: 6 trades, 4W/2L, +$1513.60 (ROI: +43.9%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 6 trades, 4W/2L, +$1281.90 (ROI: +37.4%) - **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 5 trades, 3W/2L, +$758.10 (ROI: +25.6%)

Possession was 57%–43% in Lyon's favor. Lyon had 15 shots (4 on target) versus Monaco's 16 (6 on target). Expected goals: Lyon 1.09 — Monaco 2.21. Corners: 2-5.