Lyon2 - 0Lorient
LyonWhy did AI enter 3 times at 25', 30', 49' — and still finish $-1648?
Match Overview
Lyon hosted Lorient in the Ligue 1, finishing 2-0. Goals: R. Yaremchuk (49'), C. Tolisso (56'). OddsFlow deployed 11 trades across 3 waves, achieving 45% precision with a net result of $-1648.33 (ROI: -25.0%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap line moved from -0.75 to -1; the Over/Under line shifted from 2.5 to 2.75; the home moneyline shortened from 1.73 to 1.6.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 25' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 25'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Lorient -0.5. Average expected value was 12.0%, with a combined stake of $1000. The sharpest edge was on Lorient -0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 56.2% probability versus the market's implied 46.5% — a 9.7 percentage point gap at odds of 2.15. **Result:** All 2 trades lost, netting $-1000.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 30' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 30'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Moneyline and Asian Handicap markets, targeting Draw and Lorient -1. Average expected value was 15.8%, with a combined stake of $2867. The sharpest edge was on Lorient -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 81.3% probability versus the market's implied 58.0% — a 23.3 percentage point gap at odds of 1.725. **Result:** All 4 trades lost, netting $-2867.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 49' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Lyon leading 1-0 at 49'. R. Yaremchuk scored moments ago. Lyon made 3 substitutions. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Over/Under and Moneyline and Asian Handicap markets, targeting Over 1.5 and Lyon and Lorient -1.5. Average expected value was 23.6%, with a combined stake of $2719. The sharpest edge was on Lorient -1.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 92.2% probability versus the market's implied 54.8% — a 37.4 percentage point gap at odds of 1.825. **Result:** All 5 trades won, netting +$2218.68.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 51'** — Asian Handicap Lorient -1.5: AI saw 92.2% vs market's 54.8% (37.4pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 30'** — Asian Handicap Lorient -1: AI saw 81.3% vs market's 58.0% (23.3pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 30'** — Asian Handicap Lorient -1: AI saw 81.8% vs market's 58.8% (22.9pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 50'** — Over/Under Over 1.5: AI saw 70.0% vs market's 50.0% (20.0pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 49'** — Over/Under Over 1.5: AI saw 70.0% vs market's 52.4% (17.6pp gap). correctly identified.
Model Performance
- **system4_MC_v10**: 6 trades, 3W/3L, $-509.83 (ROI: -14.0%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 5 trades, 2W/3L, $-1138.50 (ROI: -38.6%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 53%–47% in Lyon's favor. Lyon had 11 shots (5 on target) versus Lorient's 12 (6 on target). Expected goals: Lyon 1.16 — Lorient 1.87. Corners: 4-6.
Verdict
A tough session at -25.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions, though the underlying probability assessments may still prove correct over a larger sample. Top performer: system4_MC_v10 at $-509.83.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Home | 62.5% / 23.4% / 17.3% |
| Asian handicap | -1 | 49.8% |
| Over / Under | 2.75 | 51.8% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
Under 2.75 Goals Value
The Ligue 1 fixture between Lyon and Lorient concluded with a 2-0 victory for Lyon. The 1x2 market accurately priced Lyon as significant favorites (62.5% implied probability), reflecting their eventual comfortable win. In the Asian Handicap market, Lyon opened at -1 with a a 49.75% implied probability to cover, while Lorient +1 had 52.36%. Lyon's dominant 2-0 win meant they comfortably covered the -1 handicap, indicating a clear Closing Line Value (CLV) on Lyon -1 for astute bettors. The Goals Over/Under market set the line at 2.75. The market slightly leaned towards the Over with a 51.81% implied probability, compared to 50.76% for the Under. With only 2 goals scored in the match, the Under 2.75 line proved to be the correct outcome, revealing a significant market inefficiency where the public sentiment potentially inflated the Over probability. OddsFlow AI identified the Under 2.75 as a strong value signal.
A tough session at -25.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions. Top performer: HDP Sniper at $-509.83.
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