Lyon0 - 4Lens
Lyon2 trades, 100% precision — how did AI read this match?
Match Overview
Lyon hosted Lens in the Ligue 1, finishing 0-4. Goals: W. Said (20'), W. Said (32'), F. Sotoca (45'), F. Thauvin (54'). OddsFlow deployed 2 trades across 1 wave, achieving 100% precision with a net result of +$214.00 (ROI: +107.0%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap line moved from -0.5 to -0.75; the Over/Under line shifted from 2.75 to 3; the home moneyline shortened from 1.83 to 1.72.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 55' (Score: 0-4) **Context:** Lens leading 0-4 at 55'. F. Thauvin scored moments ago. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 5.5. Average expected value was 16.8%, with a combined stake of $200. The sharpest edge was on Under 5.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 63.8% probability versus the market's implied 48.3% — a 15.5 percentage point gap at odds of 2.07. **Result:** All 2 trades won, netting +$214.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 55'** — Over/Under Under 5.5: AI saw 63.8% vs market's 48.3% (15.5pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 55'** — Over/Under Under 5.5: AI saw 63.6% vs market's 48.3% (15.3pp gap). correctly identified.
Model Performance
- **system4_MC_v10**: 1 trades, 1W/0L, +$107.00 (ROI: +107.0%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 1 trades, 1W/0L, +$107.00 (ROI: +107.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 57–43 in Lyon's favor. Lyon had 16 shots (4 on target) versus Lens's 14 (4 on target). Expected goals: Lyon 1.62 — Lens 1.46. Corners: 19-8.
Verdict
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +107.0% ROI. Top performer: system4_MC_v10 at +$107.00.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Home | 58.1% / 23.0% / 22.3% |
| Asian handicap | -0.75 | 51.8% |
| Over / Under | 3 | 54.0% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The market's gross overvaluation of Lyon in the 1x2 and Handicap markets.
The match between Lyon and Lens concluded with a decisive 0-4 victory for Lens. The 1x2 market heavily favored Lyon with an implied win probability of 58.14%, a stark contrast to the actual away win. This represents a significant market inefficiency. Similarly, the Asian Handicap market set Lyon at -0.75 with a 51.81% probability to cover, which was clearly missed as Lens secured a dominant 4-goal margin. This was a clear value signal for betting against Lyon on the spread. The Goals Over/Under market, with a line of 3 and an Over probability of 54.05%, accurately predicted a higher-scoring game with 4 goals recorded. The most glaring error was the market's gross overvaluation of Lyon.
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +107.0% ROI on 2 trades. Top performer: HDP Sniper at +$107.00.
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