Lyon3 - 2Auxerre
LyonWhy did AI enter 5 times at 15', 25', 34', 45', 56' — and still finish $-3829?
Match Overview
Lyon hosted Auxerre in the Ligue 1, finishing 3-2. Goals: R. Yaremchuk (19'), S. Diomande (35'), C. Tolisso (66'), R. Yaremchuk (71'), B. Okoh (88'). OddsFlow deployed 17 trades across 5 waves, achieving 24% precision with a net result of $-3829.45 (ROI: -41.8%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap line moved from -0.75 to -1; the Over/Under stayed at 2.5 with Over odds moving from 1.96 to 1.89.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 15' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 15'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Auxerre -1. Average expected value was 22.0%, with a combined stake of $200. The sharpest edge was on Auxerre -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 73.3% probability versus the market's implied 53.3% — a 20.0 percentage point gap at odds of 1.875. **Result:** 0 of 1 trades won, netting +$0.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 25' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Lyon leading 1-0 at 25'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Over/Under markets, targeting Auxerre -1.5 and Under 3.5. Average expected value was 26.9%, with a combined stake of $3214. The sharpest edge was on Auxerre -1.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 83.7% probability versus the market's implied 50.6% — a 33.0 percentage point gap at odds of 1.975. **Result:** 2 of 4 trades won, netting +$297.55. ### Wave 3 — Minute 34' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Lyon leading 1-0 at 34'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Over/Under and Asian Handicap and Moneyline markets, targeting Under 2.5 and Auxerre -0.5 and Over 2.5 and Draw. Average expected value was 11.5%, with a combined stake of $3500. The sharpest edge was on Under 2.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 57.1% probability versus the market's implied 42.1% — a 15.0 percentage point gap at odds of 2.375. **Result:** 2 of 7 trades won, netting $-1885.00. ### Wave 4 — Minute 45' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1 after S. Diomande's equalizer at 35'. 3 models (system4_HYBRID_v10, oddsflow_core_v8.1, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Moneyline and Asian Handicap markets, targeting Draw and Auxerre -0.5. Average expected value was 9.0%, with a combined stake of $1700. The sharpest edge was on Auxerre -0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 58.2% probability versus the market's implied 48.8% — a 9.4 percentage point gap at odds of 2.05. **Result:** All 4 trades lost, netting $-1700.00. ### Wave 5 — Minute 56' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1, 56'. 1 model (system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 3.5. Average expected value was 16.5%, with a combined stake of $542. The sharpest edge was on Under 3.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 76.7% probability versus the market's implied 63.7% — a 13.0 percentage point gap at odds of 1.571. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-542.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Auxerre -1.5: AI saw 83.7% vs market's 50.6% (33.0pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Auxerre -1.5: AI saw 83.1% vs market's 50.6% (32.5pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 15'** — Asian Handicap Auxerre -1: AI saw 73.3% vs market's 53.3% (20.0pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 25'** — Over/Under Under 3.5: AI saw 76.2% vs market's 60.0% (16.2pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 25'** — Over/Under Under 3.5: AI saw 75.8% vs market's 60.0% (15.8pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.
Model Performance
- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 2 trades, 0W/1L/1V, $-200.00 (ROI: -50.0%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 6 trades, 2W/4L, $-1043.55 (ROI: -29.0%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 6 trades, 2W/4L, $-1043.90 (ROI: -28.8%) - **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 3 trades, 0W/3L, $-1542.00 (ROI: -100.0%)
Match Statistics
Lyon had 10 shots (5 on target) versus Auxerre's 0 (0 on target). Expected goals: Lyon 1.82 — Auxerre 0.
Verdict
A tough session at -41.8% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions, though the underlying probability assessments may still prove correct over a larger sample. Top performer: oddsflow_core_v8.1 at $-200.00.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Home | 61.0% / 24.5% / 17.4% |
| Asian handicap | -1 | 47.4% |
| Over / Under | 2.5 | 52.9% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
Undervaluation of Over 2.5 Goals
Lyon secured a 3-2 victory over Auxerre in Ligue 1. The 1x2 market correctly priced Lyon as the 60.98% favorite, aligning with the eventual home win. On the Asian Handicap -1, Lyon's probability to cover was 47.39% (odds 2.11). The 3-2 score resulted in a push on this line, meaning the market's slight lean towards Auxerre covering their +1 handicap was accurate given the outcome. However, the Over 2.5 Goals market closed with only a 52.91% implied probability. The actual total of 5 goals strongly indicates a clear Value Signal for the Over, as the market significantly underestimated the goal-scoring potential.
A tough session at -41.8% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions. Top performer: Oddsflow Core Strategy at $-200.00.
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