Lorient1 - 1Paris FC
LorientWhy did AI enter 5 times at 25', 38', 41', 44', 56' — and still finish +$3495?
Match Overview
Lorient hosted Paris FC in the Ligue 1, finishing 1-1. Goals: B. Dieng (54'), M. Munetsi (74'). OddsFlow deployed 17 trades across 5 waves, achieving 47% precision with a net result of +$3495.43 (ROI: +37.0%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at -0.25 but home odds shifted from 2.03 to 1.98; the Over/Under stayed at 2.25 with Over odds moving from 1.94 to 1.88.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 25' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 25'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Moneyline markets, targeting Lorient -0.5 and Lorient and Paris FC 0. Average expected value was 9.7%, with a combined stake of $3500. The sharpest edge was on Lorient -0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 50.4% probability versus the market's implied 42.1% — a 8.3 percentage point gap at odds of 2.375. **Result:** 0 of 7 trades won, netting $-2500.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 38' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 38'. 1 model (system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Moneyline markets, targeting Paris FC 0 and Lorient. Average expected value was 10.8%, with a combined stake of $1000. The sharpest edge was on Paris FC 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 55.6% probability versus the market's implied 45.5% — a 10.2 percentage point gap at odds of 2.2. **Result:** 0 of 2 trades won, netting $-500.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 41' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 41'. 1 model (system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Draw. Average expected value was 9.3%, with a combined stake of $500. The sharpest edge was on Draw (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 39.7% probability versus the market's implied 31.3% — a 8.5 percentage point gap at odds of 3.2. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$1100.00. ### Wave 4 — Minute 44' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 44'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Draw. Average expected value was 7.1%, with a combined stake of $1000. The sharpest edge was on Draw (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 41.7% probability versus the market's implied 34.8% — a 6.9 percentage point gap at odds of 2.875. **Result:** All 2 trades won, netting +$1937.50. ### Wave 5 — Minute 56' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Lorient leading 1-0 at 56'. B. Dieng scored moments ago. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Over/Under markets, targeting Paris FC -1 and Over 1.5. Average expected value was 36.6%, with a combined stake of $3441. The sharpest edge was on Paris FC -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 93.3% probability versus the market's implied 51.9% — a 41.4 percentage point gap at odds of 1.925. **Result:** All 5 trades won, netting +$3457.93.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 56'** — Asian Handicap Paris FC -1: AI saw 93.3% vs market's 51.9% (41.4pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 56'** — Asian Handicap Paris FC -1: AI saw 93.0% vs market's 51.9% (41.1pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 56'** — Asian Handicap Paris FC -1: AI saw 92.7% vs market's 51.9% (40.8pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 56'** — Over/Under Over 1.5: AI saw 70.0% vs market's 45.5% (24.5pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 58'** — Over/Under Over 1.5: AI saw 70.0% vs market's 45.5% (24.5pp gap). correctly identified.
Model Performance
- **system4_MC_v10**: 7 trades, 4W/2L/1V, +$2145.15 (ROI: +50.6%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 7 trades, 3W/3L/1V, +$750.28 (ROI: +20.3%) - **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 3 trades, 1W/1L/1V, +$600.00 (ROI: +40.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 49%–51% in Lorient's deficit. Lorient had 10 shots (3 on target) versus Paris FC's 6 (4 on target). Expected goals: Lorient 1.18 — Paris FC 0.89. Corners: 5-6.
Verdict
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +37.0% ROI. Top performer: system4_MC_v10 at +$2145.15.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Home | 43.3% / 30.2% / 29.8% |
| Asian handicap | -0.25 | 50.5% |
| Over / Under | 2.25 | 53.2% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The market significantly overvalued the Over 2.25 goals, failing to predict the low-scoring draw.
The Ligue 1 clash between Lorient and Paris FC concluded in a 1-1 draw, resulting in a total of two goals. OddsFlow analysis reveals significant market inefficiency in the Totals market. The closing line for Goals Over/Under was 2.25, with the market heavily leaning towards the Over (53.19% implied probability). However, the actual outcome of 2 goals meant the Under 2.25 was the winning bet. This divergence highlights a clear EV+ opportunity for astute bettors who identified the potential for a lower-scoring affair. Furthermore, the 1x2 market incorrectly priced Lorient as the favorite (43.29% win probability) when the match ultimately ended in a draw, demonstrating additional mispricing by bookmakers.
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +37.0% ROI on 17 trades. Top performer: HDP Sniper at +$2145.15.
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