Lorient2 - 0Marseille
LorientWhy did AI enter 2 times at 25', 58' — and still finish +$1250?
Match Overview
Lorient hosted Marseille in the Ligue 1, finishing 2-0. Goals: P. Katseris (28'), B. Dieng (58'). OddsFlow deployed 12 trades across 2 waves, achieving 33% precision with a net result of +$1250.00 (ROI: +20.8%).
Pre-Match Odds
Pre-match odds showed minimal movement.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 25' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 25'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Moneyline and Over/Under markets, targeting Lorient +0.5 and Draw and Lorient and Marseille 0 and Over 2.5. Average expected value was 16.8%, with a combined stake of $5000. The sharpest edge was on Marseille 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 74.5% probability versus the market's implied 47.6% — a 26.9 percentage point gap at odds of 2.1. **Result:** 4 of 10 trades won, netting +$2250.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 58' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Lorient leading 1-0 at 58'. B. Dieng scored moments ago. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Marseille -0.5. Average expected value was 26.3%, with a combined stake of $1000. The sharpest edge was on Marseille -0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 79.2% probability versus the market's implied 54.1% — a 25.2 percentage point gap at odds of 1.85. **Result:** All 2 trades lost, netting $-1000.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 28'** — Asian Handicap Marseille 0: AI saw 74.5% vs market's 47.6% (26.9pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 30'** — Asian Handicap Marseille 0: AI saw 74.3% vs market's 48.8% (25.5pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 58'** — Asian Handicap Marseille -0.5: AI saw 79.2% vs market's 54.1% (25.2pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 58'** — Asian Handicap Marseille -0.5: AI saw 77.3% vs market's 54.1% (23.3pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Lorient +0.5: AI saw 64.1% vs market's 44.4% (19.7pp gap). correctly identified.
Model Performance
- **system4_BLEND_v10**: 6 trades, 2W/4L, +$625.00 (ROI: +20.8%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 6 trades, 2W/4L, +$625.00 (ROI: +20.8%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 42%–58% in Lorient's deficit. Lorient had 11 shots (4 on target) versus Marseille's 15 (2 on target). Expected goals: Lorient 1.1 — Marseille 1.43. Corners: 1-7.
Verdict
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +20.8% ROI. Top performer: system4_BLEND_v10 at +$625.00.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Away | 20.8% / 22.9% / 59.5% |
| Asian handicap | +0.75 | 53.8% |
| Over / Under | 3 | 53.2% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The market significantly underestimated Lorient's home advantage and overall strength.
Lorient secured a decisive 2-0 victory over Marseille. In the 1x2 market, the bookmakers significantly mispriced this outcome, assigning Marseille a 59.52% win probability while Lorient was valued at only 20.75%. This represents substantial Closing Line Value (CLV) on Lorient. For the Handicap market, Marseille was favored at -0.75, with a 53.76% probability to cover. Lorient's 2-0 win meant they comfortably covered the +0.75 handicap, indicating a clear EV+ signal for the home underdog. The Totals market, set at 3 goals, leaned towards the Over with 53.19% probability. The match, however, finished with just 2 goals, falling Under the line and presenting a potential value signal for the Under.
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +20.8% ROI on 12 trades. Top performer: Active Trader at +$625.00.
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