Lorient

2 - 1

Lens

Lorient hosted Lens in the Ligue 1, finishing 2-1. Goals: B. Dieng (18'), O. Edouard (48'), O. Edouard (49'), A. Tosin (65'). OddsFlow deployed 16 trades across 4 waves, achieving 31% precision with a net result of $-1866.69 (ROI: -21.8%).

The Asian Handicap line moved from 0.5 to 0.75; the Over/Under line shifted from 2.5 to 2.75; the home moneyline drifted out from 3.94 to 5.09.

### Wave 1 — Minute 25' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Lorient leading 1-0 at 25'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Moneyline markets, targeting Lens 0 and Lorient and Lens +1. Average expected value was 24.3%, with a combined stake of $3146. The sharpest edge was on Lens 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 87.1% probability versus the market's implied 46.5% — a 40.6 percentage point gap at odds of 2.15. **Result:** 1 of 5 trades won, netting $-350.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 49' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1 after O. Edouard's equalizer at 49'. 3 models (system4_HYBRID_v10, system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Moneyline and Over/Under markets, targeting Lorient +0.5 and Draw and Over 2.5. Average expected value was 14.1%, with a combined stake of $3000. The sharpest edge was on Over 2.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 70.0% probability versus the market's implied 52.4% — a 17.6 percentage point gap at odds of 1.909. **Result:** 3 of 6 trades won, netting $-128.50. ### Wave 3 — Minute 60' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1 after O. Edouard's equalizer at 49'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Lens +0.5. Average expected value was 9.1%, with a combined stake of $200. The sharpest edge was on Lens +0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 59.1% probability versus the market's implied 50.0% — a 9.1 percentage point gap at odds of 2. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-200.00. ### Wave 4 — Minute 64' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1 after O. Edouard's equalizer at 49'. 3 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_HYBRID_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Moneyline markets, targeting Lens -0.5 and Lorient. Average expected value was 31.6%, with a combined stake of $2211. The sharpest edge was on Lens -0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 82.1% probability versus the market's implied 50.0% — a 32.1 percentage point gap at odds of 2. **Result:** 1 of 4 trades won, netting $-1188.19.

- **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Lens 0: AI saw 87.1% vs market's 46.5% (40.6pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Lens 0: AI saw 87.0% vs market's 46.5% (40.5pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 64'** — Asian Handicap Lens -0.5: AI saw 82.1% vs market's 50.0% (32.1pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 64'** — Asian Handicap Lens -0.5: AI saw 81.9% vs market's 50.0% (31.9pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 64'** — Asian Handicap Lens -0.5: AI saw 81.9% vs market's 50.0% (31.9pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.

- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 0W/1L, $-200.00 (ROI: -100.0%) - **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 4 trades, 2W/2L, $-207.69 (ROI: -9.5%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 6 trades, 2W/3L/1V, $-402.50 (ROI: -11.7%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 5 trades, 1W/3L/1V, $-1056.50 (ROI: -38.9%)

Possession was 34%–66% in Lorient's deficit. Lorient had 6 shots (3 on target) versus Lens's 20 (6 on target). Expected goals: Lorient 1.45 — Lens 1.29. Corners: 1-9.