Lorient0 - 2Le Havre
LorientWhat went wrong? 2 trades, $-46 — the AI's post-mortem.
Match Overview
Lorient hosted Le Havre in the Ligue 1, finishing 0-2. Goals: A. Faye (33' OG), I. Soumare (62'). OddsFlow deployed 2 trades across 1 wave, achieving 0% precision with a net result of $-46.00 (ROI: -100.0%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at 0 but home odds shifted from 1.88 to 1.96; the home moneyline drifted out from 2.55 to 2.67.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 0' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 0'. 1 model (S5.1_Pre) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Lorient. Average expected value was 40.3%, with a combined stake of $46. The sharpest edge was on Lorient (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 52.8% probability versus the market's implied 37.3% — a 15.5 percentage point gap at odds of 2.68. **Result:** All 2 trades lost, netting $-46.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 0'** — Moneyline Lorient: AI saw 52.8% vs market's 37.3% (15.5pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 0'** — Moneyline Lorient: AI saw 52.8% vs market's 38.0% (14.8pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.
Model Performance
- **S5.1_Pre**: 2 trades, 0W/2L, $-46.00 (ROI: -100.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 58–42 in Lorient's favor. Lorient had 11 shots (2 on target) versus Le Havre's 7 (4 on target). Expected goals: Lorient 1.35 — Le Havre 1.4. Corners: 3-1.
Verdict
A tough session at -100.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions, though the underlying probability assessments may still prove correct over a larger sample.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Away | 37.5% / 27.8% / 37.5% |
| Asian handicap | 0 | 51.0% |
| Over / Under | 2.5 | 52.6% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The market's strong lean towards Over 2.5 goals was a significant mispricing, as the match finished Under with only 2 goals.
The Ligue 1 fixture between Lorient and Le Havre concluded with a 0-2 victory for the away side, Le Havre. The 1x2 market priced this match as an even contest, with both home and away wins having an implied probability of 37.45%. Le Havre's outright victory aligned with the market's expectation of them being a strong contender. In the Asian Handicap market (line 0), Le Havre successfully covered the spread by winning with a two-goal margin. However, the most significant market inefficiency was identified in the Totals (Over/Under 2.5 goals) market. Despite the market leaning towards Over 2.5 goals (52.63% implied probability), the match ended with only 2 goals, falling comfortably Under the closing line. This indicates a clear positive Expected Value (EV+) opportunity for betting on Under 2.5 goals.
A tough session at -100.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions.
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