Lille1 - 1Stade Brestois 29
LilleWhy did AI enter 5 times at 26', 40', 50', 63', 75' — and still finish $-587?
Match Overview
Lille hosted Stade Brestois 29 in the Ligue 1, finishing 1-1. Goals: R. Labeau Lascary (58'), G. Perrin (71'). OddsFlow deployed 5 trades across 5 waves, achieving 40% precision with a net result of $-587.30 (ROI: -44.4%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap line moved from -0.75 to -1; the home moneyline shortened from 1.7 to 1.56.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 26' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 26'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Lille -0.75. Average expected value was 1.0%, with a combined stake of $33. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-33.24. ### Wave 2 — Minute 40' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 40'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Over 1.5. Average expected value was 4.9%, with a combined stake of $300. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$240.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 50' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 50'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Lille -0.5. Average expected value was 2.2%, with a combined stake of $68. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-67.95. ### Wave 4 — Minute 63' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Stade Brestois 29 leading 0-1 at 63'. R. Labeau Lascary scored moments ago. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Lille +0.5. Average expected value was 8.7%, with a combined stake of $99. The sharpest edge was on Lille +0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 59.3% probability versus the market's implied 50.6% — a 8.7 percentage point gap at odds of 1.975. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$96.34. ### Wave 5 — Minute 75' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1 after G. Perrin's equalizer at 71'. Stade Brestois 29 made 3 substitutions. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Lille. Average expected value was 9.9%, with a combined stake of $822. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-822.45.
Model Performance
- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 5 trades, 2W/3L, $-587.30 (ROI: -44.4%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 70%–30% in Lille's favor. Lille had 19 shots (5 on target) versus Stade Brestois 29's 11 (4 on target). Expected goals: Lille 1.43 — Stade Brestois 29 0.68. Corners: 11-1.
Verdict
A tough session at -44.4% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions, though the underlying probability assessments may still prove correct over a larger sample.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Home | 64.1% / 23.6% / 15.7% |
| Asian handicap | -1 | 50.8% |
| Over / Under | 2.5 | 52.4% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
Undervaluation of the Draw in 1x2 Market
The Ligue 1 fixture between Lille and Stade Brestois 29 concluded in a 1:1 draw, a result that exposed significant market inefficiencies. The 1x2 market heavily favored Lille with a 64.1% win probability, while the draw was priced at just 23.58% implied probability. This mispricing represents substantial Closing Line Value for bettors who identified the potential for a stalemate. In the Handicap market, Lille (-1) failed to cover, with the match ending level. The Totals market (O/U 2.5) saw 2 goals, resulting in an 'Under' outcome, despite the market leaning slightly towards the 'Over' at 52.36% probability. OddsFlow analysis indicates the biggest market error was the significant undervaluation of the draw outcome.
A tough session at -44.4% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions.
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