Lille0 - 0Nice
LilleWhy did AI enter 5 times at 25', 30', 38', 47', 67' — and still finish +$4611?
Match Overview
Lille hosted Nice in the Ligue 1, finishing 0-0. Goals: E. Wahi (12'). OddsFlow deployed 9 trades across 5 waves, achieving 67% precision with a net result of +$4611.10 (ROI: +100.5%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at -1 but home odds shifted from 2.08 to 1.88; the Over/Under line shifted from 2.5 to 2.75.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 25' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 25'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Nice -1. Average expected value was 17.4%, with a combined stake of $1087. The sharpest edge was on Nice -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 71.1% probability versus the market's implied 55.6% — a 15.5 percentage point gap at odds of 1.8. **Result:** All 2 trades won, netting +$869.60. ### Wave 2 — Minute 30' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 30'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Nice -0.5. Average expected value was 3.1%, with a combined stake of $1000. **Result:** All 2 trades won, netting +$1200.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 38' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 38'. 1 model (system4_MC_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Draw. Average expected value was 10.1%, with a combined stake of $500. The sharpest edge was on Draw (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 33.8% probability versus the market's implied 21.1% — a 12.7 percentage point gap at odds of 4.75. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$1875.00. ### Wave 4 — Minute 47' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 47'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Moneyline and Asian Handicap markets, targeting Draw and Nice 0. Average expected value was 8.5%, with a combined stake of $1000. The sharpest edge was on Draw (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 31.4% probability versus the market's implied 23.1% — a 8.3 percentage point gap at odds of 4.333. **Result:** 1 of 2 trades won, netting +$1666.50. ### Wave 5 — Minute 67' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 67'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Over 0.5. Average expected value was 8.0%, with a combined stake of $1000. **Result:** All 2 trades lost, netting $-1000.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Nice -1: AI saw 71.1% vs market's 55.6% (15.5pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Nice -1: AI saw 70.2% vs market's 55.6% (14.7pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 38'** — Moneyline Draw: AI saw 33.8% vs market's 21.1% (12.7pp gap). correctly identified.
Model Performance
- **system4_MC_v10**: 5 trades, 3W/1L/1V, +$2399.00 (ROI: +94.8%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 4 trades, 3W/1L, +$2212.10 (ROI: +107.5%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 61%–39% in Lille's favor. Lille had 7 shots (2 on target) versus Nice's 5 (1 on target). Expected goals: Lille 0.35 — Nice 0.19. Corners: 4-3.
Verdict
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +100.5% ROI. Top performer: system4_MC_v10 at +$2399.00.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Home | 65.4% / 22.1% / 16.0% |
| Asian handicap | -1 | 53.2% |
| Over / Under | 2.75 | 51.8% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The market significantly undervalued the Under 2.75 goals.
The Ligue 1 clash between Lille and Nice concluded in a 0-0 stalemate on April 18, 2026. The 1x2 market heavily favored Lille to win at 65.36% implied probability, with the draw priced at a mere 22.08%. The 0-0 outcome represented a significant Market Inefficiency in the 1x2 odds, as the draw probability was clearly undervalued. In the Asian Handicap market, Lille, opening at a -1 line with a 53.19% implied probability to cover, ultimately failed to do so. Bettors backing Nice +1 would have secured an EV+ result. The Over/Under 2.75 goals market leaned slightly towards the Over with 51.81% implied probability. However, the match produced zero goals, leading to a clear Value Signal on the Under 2.75, which was significantly underestimated by the closing line. The most pronounced Market Inefficiency was in the Totals market, where the potential for a low-scoring affair was not adequately priced, offering substantial Closing Line Value on the Under 2.75.
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +100.5% ROI on 9 trades. Top performer: HDP Sniper at +$2399.00.
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