Lille3 - 0Lens
LilleWhat went wrong? 16 trades, $-12026 — the AI's post-mortem.
Match Overview
Lille hosted Lens in the Ligue 1, finishing 3-0. Goals: H. Haraldsson (44'), F. Correia (49'), M. Fernandez-Pardo (57' pen), M. Fernandez-Pardo (58' pen). OddsFlow deployed 16 trades across 1 wave, achieving 19% precision with a net result of $-12025.96 (ROI: -82.1%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap line moved from 0 to 0.25; the home moneyline drifted out from 2.64 to 3.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 52' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Lille leading 1-0 at 52'. F. Correia scored moments ago. 3 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10, system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Over/Under markets, targeting Lens -0.5 and Lens -1 and Lens 0 and Over 1.5. Average expected value was 37.3%, with a combined stake of $14651. The sharpest edge was on Lens -0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 87.3% probability versus the market's implied 37.4% — a 49.9 percentage point gap at odds of 2.675. **Result:** 3 of 16 trades won, netting $-12025.96.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 52'** — Asian Handicap Lens -0.5: AI saw 87.3% vs market's 37.4% (49.9pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 52'** — Asian Handicap Lens -0.5: AI saw 86.7% vs market's 37.4% (49.3pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 52'** — Asian Handicap Lens -0.5: AI saw 86.5% vs market's 37.4% (49.1pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 52'** — Asian Handicap Lens -0.5: AI saw 86.5% vs market's 37.4% (49.1pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 54'** — Asian Handicap Lens -1: AI saw 97.8% vs market's 56.3% (41.5pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.
Model Performance
- **system4_BLEND_v10**: 6 trades, 2W/4L, $-3537.46 (ROI: -66.8%) - **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 5 trades, 1W/4L, $-3930.50 (ROI: -82.0%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 5 trades, 0W/5L, $-4558.00 (ROI: -100.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 55%–45% in Lille's favor. Lille had 13 shots (7 on target) versus Lens's 5 (1 on target). Expected goals: Lille 3.63 — Lens 0.59. Corners: 3-3.
Verdict
A tough session at -82.1% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions, though the underlying probability assessments may still prove correct over a larger sample. Top performer: system4_BLEND_v10 at $-3537.46.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Away | 33.3% / 29.6% / 40.5% |
| Asian handicap | +0.25 | 47.0% |
| Over / Under | 2.5 | 52.9% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
Undervaluation of Lille's outright win and handicap cover.
In the Ligue 1 clash, Lille secured a decisive 3-0 victory against Lens. The 1x2 market closing line indicated Lens as the slight favorite with a 40.49% implied win probability, significantly underestimating Lille's chances (33.33%). This represents a clear Market Inefficiency. Furthermore, on the Asian Handicap market, with a line of 0.25, Lille, as the +0.25 underdog, easily covered the spread by winning outright. The Totals market (O/U 2.5) correctly leaned towards the Over with 3 total goals, indicating a relatively efficient assessment in this segment. The most glaring error was the undervaluation of the Home win.
A tough session at -82.1% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions. Top performer: Active Trader at $-3537.46.
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