Lille1 - 1Le Havre
LilleHow did AI turn 6 trades into +$9294 profit?
Match Overview
Lille hosted Le Havre in the Ligue 1, finishing 1-1. Goals: H. Haraldsson (29'), I. Soumare (33'). OddsFlow deployed 6 trades across 1 wave, achieving 100% precision with a net result of +$9294.00 (ROI: +190.8%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at -1.25 but home odds shifted from 2.04 to 2.01.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 73' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1, 73'. 3 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10, system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Moneyline markets, targeting Le Havre -1 and Draw. Average expected value was 41.7%, with a combined stake of $4870. The sharpest edge was on Le Havre -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 96.8% probability versus the market's implied 45.5% — a 51.4 percentage point gap at odds of 2.2. **Result:** All 6 trades won, netting +$9294.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 73'** — Asian Handicap Le Havre -1: AI saw 96.8% vs market's 45.5% (51.4pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 73'** — Asian Handicap Le Havre -1: AI saw 96.8% vs market's 45.5% (51.3pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 73'** — Asian Handicap Le Havre -1: AI saw 96.8% vs market's 45.5% (51.3pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 73'** — Moneyline Draw: AI saw 59.8% vs market's 22.2% (37.6pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 73'** — Moneyline Draw: AI saw 59.8% vs market's 22.2% (37.6pp gap). correctly identified.
Model Performance
- **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 2 trades, 2W/0L, +$3098.80 (ROI: +190.8%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 2 trades, 2W/0L, +$3097.60 (ROI: +190.9%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 2 trades, 2W/0L, +$3097.60 (ROI: +190.9%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 62%–38% in Lille's favor. Lille had 11 shots (4 on target) versus Le Havre's 1 (1 on target). Expected goals: Lille 0.69 — Le Havre 0.09. Corners: 6-1.
Verdict
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +190.8% ROI. Top performer: system4_HYBRID_v10 at +$3098.80.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Home | 70.4% / 21.1% / 12.0% |
| Asian handicap | -1.25 | 49.8% |
| Over / Under | 2.5 | 52.4% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The 1x2 market significantly undervalued the probability of a draw.
The match between Lille and Le Havre concluded in a 1-1 draw. The 1x2 market displayed a significant inefficiency, pricing Lille for a win with a 70.42% implied probability, while the actual outcome was a draw, which had only a 21.05% implied probability. This represents considerable Closing Line Value (CLV) on the draw. In the Asian Handicap market, Lille was set at -1.25. The draw meant Lille failed to cover, validating the 52.08% implied probability for Le Havre +1.25. For the Totals (O/U 2.5 goals), the market leaned slightly towards the Over (52.36%), but the match finished with 2 goals, resulting in an Under hit. The model identified clear value in betting against the heavily favored home side, particularly on the draw.
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +190.8% ROI on 6 trades. Top performer: Oddsflow Beta at +$3098.80.
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