Lille0 - 2Auxerre
Lille2 trades, 100% precision — how did AI read this match?
Match Overview
Lille hosted Auxerre in the Ligue 1, finishing 0-2. Goals: L. Sinayoko (32'), L. Sinayoko (90'). OddsFlow deployed 2 trades across 1 wave, achieving 100% precision with a net result of +$56.30 (ROI: +93.8%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at -1.25 but home odds shifted from 2.01 to 1.92.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 0' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 0'. 1 model (S5.1_Pre) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Auxerre -1.25. Average expected value was 38.9%, with a combined stake of $60. The sharpest edge was on Auxerre -1.25 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 71.8% probability versus the market's implied 51.5% — a 20.3 percentage point gap at odds of 1.94. **Result:** All 2 trades won, netting +$56.30.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 0'** — Asian Handicap Auxerre -1.25: AI saw 71.8% vs market's 51.5% (20.3pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 0'** — Asian Handicap Auxerre -1.25: AI saw 71.8% vs market's 51.8% (20.0pp gap). correctly identified.
Model Performance
- **S5.1_Pre**: 2 trades, 2W/0L, +$56.30 (ROI: +93.8%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 72–28 in Lille's favor. Lille had 11 shots (3 on target) versus Auxerre's 7 (4 on target). Expected goals: Lille 1.76 — Auxerre 0.22. Corners: 4-2.
Verdict
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +93.8% ROI.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Home | 70.9% / 20.0% / 12.4% |
| Asian handicap | -1.25 | 52.1% |
| Over / Under | 2.75 | 51.0% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The 1x2 market significantly mispriced Auxerre's outright win.
The match between Lille and Auxerre concluded with a surprising 0-2 victory for Auxerre. The 1x2 market exhibited a stark market inefficiency, heavily favoring Lille with a 70.92% implied win probability. Auxerre's outright victory, priced at a mere 12.39% implied probability, represents significant Closing Line Value (CLV) for bettors who identified this mispricing. In the Handicap market, with Lille at -1.25, Auxerre comfortably covered their +1.25 handicap by winning by two clear goals. The Totals market (Over/Under 2.75 goals) was more efficient, with the actual total of 2 goals falling in line with the market's slight lean towards the Under (51.55% probability). The most pronounced error was the bookmakers' overestimation of Lille, leading to a substantial EV+ opportunity on Auxerre's outright win.
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +93.8% ROI on 2 trades.
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