Lens0 - 2Paris Saint Germain
LensWhy did AI enter 7 times at 0', 15', 25', 30', 41', 67', 72' — and still finish $-2264?
Match Overview
Lens hosted Paris Saint Germain in the Ligue 1, finishing 0-2. Goals: K. Kvaratskhelia (29'), I. Mbaye (90'). OddsFlow deployed 37 trades across 7 waves, achieving 41% precision with a net result of $-2263.79 (ROI: -19.1%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap line moved from 0.5 to 0.25; the home moneyline shortened from 3.45 to 3.11.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 0' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 0'. 1 model (S5.1_Pre) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Lens. Average expected value was 13.4%, with a combined stake of $200. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-200.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 15' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 15'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Lens +0.25 and Lens +0.5. Average expected value was 17.4%, with a combined stake of $294. The sharpest edge was on Lens +0.25 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 59.0% probability versus the market's implied 46.9% — a 12.0 percentage point gap at odds of 2.13. **Result:** All 3 trades lost, netting $-294.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 25' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 25'. 3 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10, system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Over/Under and Asian Handicap markets, targeting Over 2.5 and Paris Saint Germain +0.25 and Paris Saint Germain 0. Average expected value was 21.6%, with a combined stake of $3427. The sharpest edge was on Paris Saint Germain +0.25 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 65.1% probability versus the market's implied 48.1% — a 17.0 percentage point gap at odds of 2.08. **Result:** 9 of 12 trades won, netting +$40.71. ### Wave 4 — Minute 30' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Paris Saint Germain leading 0-1 at 30'. K. Kvaratskhelia scored moments ago. 3 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10, system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Over/Under and Moneyline markets, targeting Lens 0 and Lens +0.5 and Over 3.5 and Paris Saint Germain. Average expected value was 26.5%, with a combined stake of $3950. The sharpest edge was on Lens +0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 70.6% probability versus the market's implied 41.2% — a 29.4 percentage point gap at odds of 2.425. **Result:** 1 of 13 trades won, netting $-3183.50. ### Wave 5 — Minute 41' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Paris Saint Germain leading 0-1 at 41'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Paris Saint Germain. Average expected value was 5.0%, with a combined stake of $1000. **Result:** All 2 trades won, netting +$516.50. ### Wave 6 — Minute 67' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Paris Saint Germain leading 0-1 at 67'. 3 models (system4_HYBRID_v10, system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Lens +1. Average expected value was 21.2%, with a combined stake of $1500. The sharpest edge was on Lens +1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 76.8% probability versus the market's implied 58.0% — a 18.8 percentage point gap at odds of 1.725. **Result:** 0 of 3 trades won, netting +$0.00. ### Wave 7 — Minute 72' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Paris Saint Germain leading 0-1 at 72'. 3 models (system4_HYBRID_v10, system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Over 1.5. Average expected value was 9.8%, with a combined stake of $1500. The sharpest edge was on Over 1.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 70.0% probability versus the market's implied 63.7% — a 6.3 percentage point gap at odds of 1.571. **Result:** All 3 trades won, netting +$856.50.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 30'** — Asian Handicap Lens +0.5: AI saw 70.6% vs market's 41.2% (29.4pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 30'** — Asian Handicap Lens +0.5: AI saw 70.2% vs market's 41.2% (28.9pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 30'** — Asian Handicap Lens +0.5: AI saw 69.8% vs market's 41.2% (28.5pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 30'** — Asian Handicap Lens 0: AI saw 70.6% vs market's 51.0% (19.6pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 30'** — Asian Handicap Lens 0: AI saw 70.2% vs market's 51.0% (19.1pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.
Model Performance
- **S5.1_Pre**: 1 trades, 0W/1L, $-200.00 (ROI: -100.0%) - **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 3 trades, 0W/3L, $-294.00 (ROI: -100.0%) - **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 11 trades, 5W/5L/1V, $-577.23 (ROI: -15.2%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 11 trades, 5W/5L/1V, $-592.24 (ROI: -15.6%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 11 trades, 5W/5L/1V, $-600.32 (ROI: -15.8%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 38–62 in Lens's deficit. Lens had 24 shots (10 on target) versus Paris Saint Germain's 10 (3 on target). Expected goals: Lens 2.51 — Paris Saint Germain 0.85. Corners: 6-3.
Verdict
A tough session at -19.1% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions, though the underlying probability assessments may still prove correct over a larger sample. Top performer: S5.1_Pre at $-200.00.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Away | 32.1% / 25.2% / 45.5% |
| Asian handicap | +0.25 | 51.5% |
| Over / Under | 3.25 | 49.3% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
Market was highly efficient across all major lines.
In the Ligue 1 clash, Paris Saint Germain secured a decisive 0-2 away victory against Lens. The 1x2 market accurately priced PSG as the favorites, validating their win. For the Asian Handicap (-0.25 for PSG), the Parisians comfortably covered the spread with their two-goal margin, aligning with the market's slight lean. Furthermore, the Goals Over/Under market correctly anticipated fewer goals than the 3.25 line, with a final tally of two goals. OddsFlow's model confirms high market efficiency across all major betting lines for this fixture, indicating that bookmakers correctly assessed the probabilities.
A tough session at -19.1% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions. Top performer: PreMatch Edge at $-200.00.
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