Lens1 - 0Nantes
LensWhy did AI enter 2 times at 56', 84' — and still finish $-855?
Match Overview
Lens hosted Nantes in the Ligue 1, finishing 1-0. Goals: M. Soares (79'). OddsFlow deployed 12 trades across 2 waves, achieving 42% precision with a net result of $-855.00 (ROI: -15.0%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap line moved from -1.75 to -1.25; the Over/Under line shifted from 3 to 3.25; the home moneyline drifted out from 1.27 to 1.47.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 56' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 56'. 4 models (system4_MC_v10, oddsflow_core_v8.1, system4_HYBRID_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Moneyline and Asian Handicap and Over/Under markets, targeting Draw and Nantes -0.5 and Under 1.5. Average expected value was 9.0%, with a combined stake of $4700. The sharpest edge was on Under 1.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 68.6% probability versus the market's implied 57.9% — a 10.7 percentage point gap at odds of 1.727. **Result:** 3 of 10 trades won, netting $-2109.50. ### Wave 2 — Minute 84' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Lens leading 1-0 at 84'. M. Soares scored moments ago. Lens made 4 substitutions. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Moneyline markets, targeting Nantes -1 and Lens. Average expected value was 47.6%, with a combined stake of $1000. The sharpest edge was on Nantes -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 97.0% probability versus the market's implied 38.5% — a 58.6 percentage point gap at odds of 2.6. **Result:** All 2 trades won, netting +$1254.50.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 84'** — Asian Handicap Nantes -1: AI saw 97.0% vs market's 38.5% (58.6pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 84'** — Moneyline Lens: AI saw 80.3% vs market's 52.4% (27.9pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 56'** — Over/Under Under 1.5: AI saw 68.6% vs market's 57.9% (10.7pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 56'** — Over/Under Under 1.5: AI saw 68.4% vs market's 57.9% (10.5pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 56'** — Over/Under Under 1.5: AI saw 68.1% vs market's 57.9% (10.2pp gap). correctly identified.
Model Performance
- **system4_BLEND_v10**: 4 trades, 2W/2L, +$163.50 (ROI: +8.2%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 4 trades, 2W/2L, $-182.00 (ROI: -9.1%) - **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 0W/1L, $-200.00 (ROI: -100.0%) - **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 3 trades, 1W/2L, $-636.50 (ROI: -42.4%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 65–35 in Lens's favor. Lens had 14 shots (5 on target) versus Nantes's 15 (3 on target). Expected goals: Lens 0.77 — Nantes 1.1. Corners: 8-3.
Verdict
A tough session at -15.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions, though the underlying probability assessments may still prove correct over a larger sample. Top performer: system4_BLEND_v10 at +$163.50.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Home | 68.0% / 19.9% / 15.3% |
| Asian handicap | -1.25 | 50.0% |
| Over / Under | 3.25 | 48.1% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The Over/Under 3.25 Goals line was significantly mispriced, offering strong value on the Under.
The Ligue 1 clash between Lens and Nantes concluded with a 1-0 victory for the home side. While the 1x2 market correctly priced Lens as the clear favorite (68.03% implied probability), the significant market inefficiency emerged in the Totals market. The closing line for Over/Under was set at 3.25 goals, with the market leaning slightly towards the Under (54.64%). However, the actual total of just 1 goal demonstrated a substantial divergence from the market's expectation, indicating that the Under 3.25 was a strong EV+ signal. Furthermore, despite Lens's win, they failed to cover the Asian Handicap of -1.25, highlighting another area where the pre-match odds did not fully align with the outcome.
A tough session at -15.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions. Top performer: Active Trader at +$163.50.
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