Le Havre2 - 1Toulouse
Le HavreWhat went wrong? 1 trades, $-200 — the AI's post-mortem.
Match Overview
Le Havre hosted Toulouse in the Ligue 1, finishing 2-1. Goals: I. Soumare (43'), D. Sidibe (45'), I. Soumare (53'), S. Hidalgo (75'). Le Havre received a red card (A. Sangante, 2'). OddsFlow deployed 1 trades across 1 wave, achieving 0% precision with a net result of $-200.00 (ROI: -100.0%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at 0.25 but home odds shifted from 1.97 to 1.84; the home moneyline shortened from 3.5 to 3.19.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 53' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1 after I. Soumare's equalizer at 53'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Toulouse +0.75. Average expected value was 10.4%, with a combined stake of $200. The sharpest edge was on Toulouse +0.75 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 63.0% probability versus the market's implied 52.6% — a 10.4 percentage point gap at odds of 1.9. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-200.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 53'** — Asian Handicap Toulouse +0.75: AI saw 63.0% vs market's 52.6% (10.4pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.
Model Performance
- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 0W/1L, $-200.00 (ROI: -100.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 33%–67% in Le Havre's deficit. Le Havre had 4 shots (2 on target) versus Toulouse's 23 (8 on target). Expected goals: Le Havre 1.1 — Toulouse 1.7. Corners: 1-9.
Verdict
A tough session at -100.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions, though the underlying probability assessments may still prove correct over a larger sample.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Away | 31.4% / 30.6% / 40.8% |
| Asian handicap | +0.25 | 47.6% |
| Over / Under | 2.25 | 51.3% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The market significantly underestimated Le Havre's potential for an outright win.
Le Havre secured a 2-1 victory over Toulouse in a Ligue 1 fixture. The **1x2 market** showed a significant **Market Inefficiency**, with Toulouse favored for an away win (40.82% implied probability) while Le Havre was priced as the underdog (31.35%). Le Havre's outright win suggests a clear **Value Signal** was present for their Moneyline. In the **Handicap market**, with Toulouse at -0.25 and Le Havre at +0.25, Le Havre's 2-1 win meant they comfortably **covered the +0.25 spread**. Interestingly, the market had slightly leaned towards Le Havre +0.25 (54.35% probability), indicating some foresight despite the 1x2 market's error. For the **Totals (Over/Under) market**, the closing line was 2.25 goals. With 3 goals scored, the 'Over' bet was successful. The market showed a relatively balanced expectation (Over 51.28%, Under 51.28%), aligning fairly with the actual outcome.
A tough session at -100.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions.
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