Le Havre2 - 1Strasbourg
Le HavreWhy did AI enter 2 times at 45', 54' — and still finish $-13?
Match Overview
Le Havre hosted Strasbourg in the Ligue 1, finishing 2-1. Goals: S. Zagadou (26'), M. Godo (36'), I. Soumare (54'). Strasbourg received a red card (I. Doukoure, 29'). OddsFlow deployed 4 trades across 2 waves, achieving 75% precision with a net result of $-12.95 (ROI: -2.1%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at 0.5 but home odds shifted from 1.85 to 2.04; the home moneyline drifted out from 3.85 to 4.31.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 45' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1 after M. Godo's equalizer at 36'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Le Havre -0.5 and Le Havre -0.25 and Le Havre +0.5. Average expected value was 4.3%, with a combined stake of $305. The sharpest edge was on Le Havre +0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 58.6% probability versus the market's implied 49.4% — a 9.2 percentage point gap at odds of 2.025. **Result:** All 3 trades won, netting +$287.05. ### Wave 2 — Minute 54' (Score: 2-1) **Context:** Le Havre leading 2-1 at 54'. I. Soumare scored moments ago. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Over 3.5. Average expected value was 0.6%, with a combined stake of $300. The sharpest edge was on Over 3.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 55.0% probability versus the market's implied 43.5% — a 11.5 percentage point gap at odds of 2.3. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-300.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 54'** — Over/Under Over 3.5: AI saw 55.0% vs market's 43.5% (11.5pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.
Model Performance
- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 4 trades, 3W/1L, $-12.95 (ROI: -2.1%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 51%–49% in Le Havre's favor. Le Havre had 15 shots (7 on target) versus Strasbourg's 9 (3 on target). Expected goals: Le Havre 0.85 — Strasbourg 0.44. Corners: 8-3.
Verdict
A marginally negative session at -2.1% ROI. The edge identification was sound but variance went against the positions.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Away | 23.2% / 26.5% / 53.2% |
| Asian handicap | +0.5 | 53.2% |
| Over / Under | 2.5 | 51.3% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The market significantly underestimated Le Havre's chances of an outright win, creating clear value on the home side.
The fixture between Le Havre and Strasbourg concluded with a 2-1 victory for Le Havre. The pre-match 1x2 market heavily favored Strasbourg with an implied win probability of 53.19%, while Le Havre's win probability stood at a mere 23.2%. This stark contrast between market sentiment and actual outcome represents a significant market inefficiency, indicating substantial value on the home win. In the Handicap market, with a line of 0.5, Strasbourg (-0.5) was given a 53.19% chance to cover, implying they were expected to win by at least one goal. However, Le Havre (+0.5) not only covered but secured an outright win, further cementing the pre-match market's misjudgment. The Totals market, set at 2.5 goals, saw marginal favoritism towards the Over (51.28% probability). With 3 actual goals scored, the Over comfortably hit, suggesting this market was relatively more efficient compared to the outright and handicap lines. The OddsFlow model identified a clear EV+ opportunity on Le Havre's victory.
A marginally negative session at -2.1% ROI. The edge identification was sound but variance went against the positions.
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