Le Havre0 - 1Paris Saint Germain
Le HavreWhat went wrong? 1 trades, $-200 — the AI's post-mortem.
Match Overview
Le Havre hosted Paris Saint Germain in the Ligue 1, finishing 0-1. Goals: B. Barcola (37'). OddsFlow deployed 1 trades across 1 wave, achieving 0% precision with a net result of $-200.00 (ROI: -100.0%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at 1.75 but home odds shifted from 1.84 to 1.92; the Over/Under stayed at 3.25 with Over odds moving from 1.89 to 2.01; the home moneyline drifted out from 8.97 to 10.35.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 81' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Paris Saint Germain leading 0-1 at 81'. D. Doue scored moments ago. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Paris Saint Germain +1.25. Average expected value was 17.5%, with a combined stake of $200. The sharpest edge was on Paris Saint Germain +1.25 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 66.3% probability versus the market's implied 48.8% — a 17.5 percentage point gap at odds of 2.05. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-200.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 81'** — Asian Handicap Paris Saint Germain +1.25: AI saw 66.3% vs market's 48.8% (17.5pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.
Model Performance
- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 0W/1L, $-200.00 (ROI: -100.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 31%–69% in Le Havre's deficit. Le Havre had 7 shots (1 on target) versus Paris Saint Germain's 22 (9 on target). Expected goals: Le Havre 0.58 — Paris Saint Germain 3.88. Corners: 1-3.
Verdict
A tough session at -100.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions, though the underlying probability assessments may still prove correct over a larger sample.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Away | 9.7% / 15.5% / 78.7% |
| Asian handicap | +1.75 | 50.3% |
| Over / Under | 3.25 | 49.8% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The market significantly overestimated total goals, making Under 3.25 the most pronounced value signal.
Le Havre fell 0-1 to Paris Saint Germain in a Ligue 1 fixture. The 1x2 market accurately predicted a PSG victory, with an implied win probability of 78.74%. However, the Asian Handicap market at -1.75 for PSG proved inefficient; PSG only won by one goal, failing to cover the spread. This made Le Havre +1.75 an EV+ position. The most prominent Market Inefficiency was observed in the Totals (O/U) market. Despite a closing line of 3.25 goals and a slight market lean towards the Under (53.19%), the actual total of 1 goal represented a substantial miss by the bookmakers. The Under 3.25 was a clear Value Signal.
A tough session at -100.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions.
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