Le Havre4 - 4Metz
Le HavreWhy did AI enter 8 times at 16', 25', 30', 37', 41', 48', 54', 62' — and still finish +$612?
Match Overview
Le Havre hosted Metz in the Ligue 1, finishing 4-4. Goals: A. Samatta (5'), G. Kvilitaia (9'), Y. Kechta (13'), G. Hein (45' pen), Y. Zouaoui (50' pen), J. Pandore (54'), F. Doucoure (61'), G. Hein (85'), G. Hein (86'). OddsFlow deployed 28 trades across 8 waves, achieving 46% precision with a net result of +$611.85 (ROI: +3.8%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap line moved from -0.75 to -1; the Over/Under line shifted from 2.5 to 2.75; the home moneyline shortened from 1.79 to 1.58.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 16' (Score: 2-1) **Context:** Le Havre leading 2-1 at 16'. Y. Kechta scored moments ago. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Metz -1.5. Average expected value was 23.5%, with a combined stake of $200. The sharpest edge was on Metz -1.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 72.2% probability versus the market's implied 50.6% — a 21.6 percentage point gap at odds of 1.975. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$195.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 25' (Score: 2-1) **Context:** Le Havre leading 2-1 at 25'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Over/Under and Asian Handicap markets, targeting Under 5.5 and Metz -1. Average expected value was 27.0%, with a combined stake of $2200. The sharpest edge was on Metz -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 76.2% probability versus the market's implied 36.4% — a 39.9 percentage point gap at odds of 2.75. **Result:** 2 of 4 trades won, netting +$1100.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 30' (Score: 2-1) **Context:** Le Havre leading 2-1 at 30'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Metz -1.5. Average expected value was 27.1%, with a combined stake of $1129. The sharpest edge was on Metz -1.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 77.8% probability versus the market's implied 52.6% — a 25.2 percentage point gap at odds of 1.9. **Result:** All 2 trades won, netting +$1016.10. ### Wave 4 — Minute 37' (Score: 2-1) **Context:** Le Havre leading 2-1 at 37'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 4.5. Average expected value was 11.9%, with a combined stake of $1000. The sharpest edge was on Under 4.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 51.9% probability versus the market's implied 42.1% — a 9.8 percentage point gap at odds of 2.375. **Result:** All 2 trades lost, netting $-1000.00. ### Wave 5 — Minute 41' (Score: 2-1) **Context:** Le Havre leading 2-1 at 41'. 1 model (system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Over/Under and Asian Handicap markets, targeting Under 4.5 and Metz -1. Average expected value was 31.4%, with a combined stake of $1185. The sharpest edge was on Metz -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 82.1% probability versus the market's implied 36.4% — a 45.7 percentage point gap at odds of 2.75. **Result:** 1 of 2 trades won, netting +$698.75. ### Wave 6 — Minute 48' (Score: 2-1) **Context:** Le Havre leading 2-1 at 48'. G. Hein scored moments ago. Le Havre made 3 substitutions. 3 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_HYBRID_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Moneyline and Asian Handicap and Over/Under markets, targeting Le Havre and Metz -0.5 and Under 5.5 and Under 6.5 and Draw. Average expected value was 20.9%, with a combined stake of $7952. The sharpest edge was on Under 5.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 87.4% probability versus the market's implied 50.0% — a 37.4 percentage point gap at odds of 2. **Result:** 6 of 13 trades won, netting +$373.00. ### Wave 7 — Minute 54' (Score: 3-3) **Context:** Level at 3-3 after J. Pandore's equalizer at 54'. 3 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10, system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 7.5. Average expected value was 26.2%, with a combined stake of $2021. The sharpest edge was on Under 7.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 90.8% probability versus the market's implied 60.0% — a 30.8 percentage point gap at odds of 1.666. **Result:** All 3 trades lost, netting $-2021.00. ### Wave 8 — Minute 62' (Score: 4-3) **Context:** Le Havre leading 4-3 at 62'. F. Doucoure scored moments ago. 1 model (system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 8.5. Average expected value was 15.0%, with a combined stake of $500. The sharpest edge was on Under 8.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 78.7% probability versus the market's implied 66.7% — a 12.0 percentage point gap at odds of 1.5. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$250.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 41'** — Asian Handicap Metz -1: AI saw 82.1% vs market's 36.4% (45.7pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Metz -1: AI saw 76.2% vs market's 36.4% (39.9pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Metz -1: AI saw 76.0% vs market's 36.4% (39.7pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 50'** — Over/Under Under 5.5: AI saw 87.4% vs market's 50.0% (37.4pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 54'** — Over/Under Under 7.5: AI saw 90.8% vs market's 60.0% (30.8pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.
Model Performance
- **system4_BLEND_v10**: 9 trades, 4W/5L, +$917.20 (ROI: +17.6%) - **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 1W/0L, +$195.00 (ROI: +97.5%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 9 trades, 4W/5L, $-20.60 (ROI: -0.4%) - **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 9 trades, 4W/5L, $-479.75 (ROI: -8.6%)
Match Statistics
Le Havre had 13 shots (5 on target) versus Metz's 0 (0 on target).
Verdict
A positive result for OddsFlow with +3.8% ROI. The models found genuine edges though not all converted. Top performer: system4_BLEND_v10 at +$917.20.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Home | 63.3% / 23.9% / 16.8% |
| Asian handicap | -1 | 50.0% |
| Over / Under | 2.75 | 48.8% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The Over 2.75 goals market was significantly mispriced, leading to a massive EV+ opportunity for Over bettors.
The clash between Le Havre and Metz concluded in an exhilarating 4-4 draw, revealing significant market inefficiencies. In the 1x2 market, Le Havre was a strong favorite with a 63.29% win probability. The draw, occurring at a mere 23.87% implied probability, represented substantial Closing Line Value (CLV) for draw bettors. On the Asian Handicap (-1 for Le Havre), the market had Le Havre covering at 50% and Metz covering at 52.63%. With the match ending in a draw, Metz easily covered the +1 handicap. However, the most pronounced market error was observed in the Goals Over/Under market. Despite an astonishing 8 goals being scored, the closing line was 2.75 with the market leaning towards the Under (54.05% probability). This massive disparity between market expectation and actual outcome created an immense EV+ opportunity for those betting the Over, highlighting a severe mispricing by bookmakers.
A positive result with +3.8% ROI. The models found genuine edges, finishing at +$611.85. Top performer: Active Trader at +$917.20.
See AI signals as they happen
This report shows settled results. Get real-time AI signals during live matches.