Le Havre0 - 1Marseille
Le HavreWhy did AI enter 7 times at 0', 26', 43', 51', 55', 66', 71' — and still finish $-1990?
Match Overview
Le Havre hosted Marseille in the Ligue 1, finishing 0-1. Goals: M. Greenwood (55' pen), I. Paixao (90'). OddsFlow deployed 14 trades across 7 waves, achieving 36% precision with a net result of $-1990.00 (ROI: -27.8%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap line moved from 0.75 to 0.5; the home moneyline shortened from 4.27 to 3.61.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 0' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 0'. 1 model (S5.1_Pre) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Le Havre. Average expected value was 48.9%, with a combined stake of $481. The sharpest edge was on Le Havre (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 42.1% probability versus the market's implied 28.2% — a 13.8 percentage point gap at odds of 3.54. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-481.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 26' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 26'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Moneyline and Asian Handicap and Over/Under markets, targeting Le Havre and Le Havre +0.5 and Under 2.5. Average expected value was 11.3%, with a combined stake of $3175. The sharpest edge was on Le Havre +0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 72.0% probability versus the market's implied 57.1% — a 14.8 percentage point gap at odds of 1.75. **Result:** 2 of 6 trades won, netting $-1560.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 43' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 43'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Moneyline and Over/Under markets, targeting Draw and Under 1.5. Average expected value was 6.8%, with a combined stake of $1500. The sharpest edge was on Draw (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 40.5% probability versus the market's implied 34.8% — a 5.7 percentage point gap at odds of 2.875. **Result:** 1 of 3 trades won, netting $-500.00. ### Wave 4 — Minute 51' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 51'. 1 model (system4_MC_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 1.5. Average expected value was 8.7%, with a combined stake of $500. The sharpest edge was on Under 1.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 63.6% probability versus the market's implied 57.9% — a 5.7 percentage point gap at odds of 1.727. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$363.50. ### Wave 5 — Minute 55' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 55'. 1 model (system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Le Havre +1. Average expected value was 31.8%, with a combined stake of $500. The sharpest edge was on Le Havre +1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 76.3% probability versus the market's implied 46.5% — a 29.8 percentage point gap at odds of 2.15. **Result:** 0 of 1 trades won, netting +$0.00. ### Wave 6 — Minute 66' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Marseille leading 0-1 at 66'. 1 model (system4_MC_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Over 1.5. Average expected value was 8.0%, with a combined stake of $500. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-500.00. ### Wave 7 — Minute 71' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Marseille leading 0-1 at 71'. S. Boufal scored moments ago. 1 model (system4_MC_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Marseille. Average expected value was 35.3%, with a combined stake of $500. The sharpest edge was on Marseille (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 74.7% probability versus the market's implied 42.1% — a 32.6 percentage point gap at odds of 2.375. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$687.50.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 71'** — Moneyline Marseille: AI saw 74.7% vs market's 42.1% (32.6pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 55'** — Asian Handicap Le Havre +1: AI saw 76.3% vs market's 46.5% (29.8pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 26'** — Asian Handicap Le Havre +0.5: AI saw 72.0% vs market's 57.1% (14.8pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 0'** — Moneyline Le Havre: AI saw 42.1% vs market's 28.2% (13.8pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 26'** — Asian Handicap Le Havre +0.5: AI saw 71.3% vs market's 58.0% (13.3pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.
Model Performance
- **S5.1_Pre**: 1 trades, 0W/1L, $-481.00 (ROI: -100.0%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 8 trades, 3W/4L/1V, $-716.50 (ROI: -17.6%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 5 trades, 2W/3L, $-792.50 (ROI: -30.5%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 50–50 in Le Havre's deficit. Le Havre had 9 shots (2 on target) versus Marseille's 7 (3 on target). Expected goals: Le Havre 1.06 — Marseille 1.12. Corners: 3-0.
Verdict
A tough session at -27.8% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions, though the underlying probability assessments may still prove correct over a larger sample. Top performer: S5.1_Pre at $-481.00.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Away | 27.7% / 26.3% / 48.8% |
| Asian handicap | +0.5 | 53.5% |
| Over / Under | 3 | 48.8% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The market significantly mispriced the Asian Handicap, underestimating Marseille's capacity to cover the -0.5 spread.
Marseille clinched a narrow 0-1 victory over Le Havre. In the 1x2 market, Marseille was the slight favorite with a 48.78% implied win probability, aligning with the actual outcome. However, the most notable market inefficiency was observed in the Asian Handicap. The market priced Le Havre +0.5 with a 53.48% probability, expecting them to avoid defeat by more than half a goal. Marseille's 0-1 win meant they successfully covered the -0.5 handicap, indicating a clear value signal for those backing Marseille on the spread. The Goals Over/Under market, set at 3, correctly leaned towards the Under (53.76% probability), as only 1 goal was scored, reflecting an efficient assessment.
A tough session at -27.8% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions. Top performer: PreMatch Edge at $-481.00.
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