Le Havre0 - 0Lyon
Le HavreWhy did AI enter 3 times at 25', 51', 55' — and still finish +$4643?
Match Overview
Le Havre hosted Lyon in the Ligue 1, finishing 0-0. Le Havre received a red card (A. Sangante, 55'). OddsFlow deployed 6 trades across 3 waves, achieving 100% precision with a net result of +$4642.82 (ROI: +131.6%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap line moved from 0.5 to 0.25; the Over/Under line shifted from 2.5 to 2.25; the home moneyline shortened from 3.88 to 3.7.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 25' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 25'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Draw. Average expected value was 6.1%, with a combined stake of $1000. The sharpest edge was on Draw (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 39.6% probability versus the market's implied 33.3% — a 6.3 percentage point gap at odds of 3. **Result:** All 2 trades won, netting +$2000.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 51' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 51'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Le Havre +1. Average expected value was 31.5%, with a combined stake of $1432. The sharpest edge was on Le Havre +1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 77.6% probability versus the market's implied 47.6% — a 30.0 percentage point gap at odds of 2.1. **Result:** All 2 trades won, netting +$1575.20. ### Wave 3 — Minute 55' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 55'. Le Havre down to 10 men (S. Zagadou red card 55'). 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Le Havre +0.5. Average expected value was 28.5%, with a combined stake of $1095. The sharpest edge was on Le Havre +0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 77.5% probability versus the market's implied 50.6% — a 26.8 percentage point gap at odds of 1.975. **Result:** All 2 trades won, netting +$1067.63.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 51'** — Asian Handicap Le Havre +1: AI saw 77.6% vs market's 47.6% (30.0pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 51'** — Asian Handicap Le Havre +1: AI saw 77.0% vs market's 47.6% (29.4pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 55'** — Asian Handicap Le Havre +0.5: AI saw 77.5% vs market's 50.6% (26.8pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 56'** — Asian Handicap Le Havre +0.5: AI saw 76.9% vs market's 50.6% (26.3pp gap). correctly identified.
Model Performance
- **system4_MC_v10**: 3 trades, 3W/0L, +$2334.48 (ROI: +131.4%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 3 trades, 3W/0L, +$2308.35 (ROI: +131.8%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 36%–64% in Le Havre's deficit. Le Havre had 12 shots (4 on target) versus Lyon's 12 (4 on target). Expected goals: Le Havre 0.74 — Lyon 1.06. Corners: 2-2.
Verdict
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +131.6% ROI. Top performer: system4_MC_v10 at +$2334.48.
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +131.6% ROI on 6 trades. Top performer: HDP Sniper at +$2334.48.
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