Le Havre1 - 1Auxerre
Le Havre15 trades, 33% precision — how did AI read this match?
Match Overview
Le Havre hosted Auxerre in the Ligue 1, finishing 1-1. Goals: L. Sinayoko (15'), S. Ebonog (23'). OddsFlow deployed 15 trades across 1 wave, achieving 33% precision with a net result of +$1026.50 (ROI: +12.3%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap line moved from -0.25 to 0; the home moneyline drifted out from 2.44 to 2.6.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 29' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1 after S. Ebonog's equalizer at 23'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Moneyline and Over/Under markets, targeting Auxerre 0 and Draw and Over 2.5 and Le Havre and Le Havre +0.5. Average expected value was 18.3%, with a combined stake of $8360. The sharpest edge was on Le Havre +0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 80.1% probability versus the market's implied 46.5% — a 33.6 percentage point gap at odds of 2.15. **Result:** 5 of 15 trades won, netting +$1026.50.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 33'** — Asian Handicap Le Havre +0.5: AI saw 80.1% vs market's 46.5% (33.6pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 31'** — Asian Handicap Le Havre +0.5: AI saw 80.0% vs market's 46.5% (33.5pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 31'** — Asian Handicap Le Havre +0.5: AI saw 79.7% vs market's 46.5% (33.2pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 29'** — Over/Under Over 2.5: AI saw 70.0% vs market's 40.0% (30.0pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 33'** — Moneyline Le Havre: AI saw 38.6% vs market's 20.0% (18.6pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.
Model Performance
- **system4_BLEND_v10**: 9 trades, 3W/4L/2V, +$805.50 (ROI: +15.9%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 6 trades, 2W/3L/1V, +$221.00 (ROI: +6.7%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 53%–47% in Le Havre's favor. Le Havre had 10 shots (3 on target) versus Auxerre's 12 (2 on target). Expected goals: Le Havre 0.5 — Auxerre 1.7. Corners: 4-5.
Verdict
A positive result for OddsFlow with +12.3% ROI. The models found genuine edges though not all converted. Top performer: system4_BLEND_v10 at +$805.50.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Home | 38.5% / 32.0% / 32.9% |
| Asian handicap | 0 | 55.3% |
| Over / Under | 2.25 | 48.8% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The market significantly undervalued the draw outcome.
The Ligue 1 fixture between Le Havre and Auxerre concluded in a 1-1 draw. The 1x2 market initially favored Le Havre with an implied win probability of 38.46%, significantly underpricing the actual outcome of a draw, which had an implied probability of just 32.05%. This represents a clear market inefficiency where the draw offered substantial Closing Line Value (CLV). In the Asian Handicap market, the line was set at 0, with Le Havre favored to cover at 55.25%. Given the draw, neither side covered, making the market's lean on Le Havre incorrect. For the Totals market, the line closed at 2.25 goals, with the market leaning slightly towards the Under at 54.05% implied probability. The final score of 1-1, totaling 2 goals, meant the Under 2.25 bet was a winner, validating the market's slight lean in this segment.
A positive result with +12.3% ROI. The models found genuine edges, finishing at +$1026.50. Top performer: Active Trader at +$805.50.
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