Auxerre0 - 0Paris FC
Auxerre1 trades, 0% precision — how did AI read this match?
Match Overview
Auxerre hosted Paris FC in the Ligue 1, finishing 0-0. OddsFlow deployed 1 trades across 1 wave, achieving 0% precision with a net result of +$0.00 (ROI: +0.0%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at 0 but home odds shifted from 1.78 to 1.83.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 23' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 23'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Paris FC 0. Average expected value was 6.9%, with a combined stake of $186. The sharpest edge was on Paris FC 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 58.8% probability versus the market's implied 51.9% — a 6.9 percentage point gap at odds of 1.925. **Result:** 0 of 1 trades won, netting +$0.00.
Model Performance
- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 0W/0L/1V, +$0.00 (ROI: +0.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 49%–51% in Auxerre's deficit. Auxerre had 10 shots (2 on target) versus Paris FC's 7 (4 on target). Expected goals: Auxerre 0.97 — Paris FC 0.87. Corners: 6-4.
Verdict
A marginally negative session at 0.0% ROI. The edge identification was sound but variance went against the positions.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Auxerre | 0.4% / 0.3% / 0.3% |
| Asian handicap | 0 | 0.5% |
| Over / Under | 2.25 | 0.5% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The market significantly overvalued Over 2.25 goals; the 0-0 draw presented an EV+ opportunity on Under 2.25.
The Ligue 1 fixture between Auxerre and Paris FC concluded in a 0-0 draw. The 1x2 market, with Auxerre as the slight favorite at 37.70% implied win probability, underestimated the draw probability (29.66%) given the final score. In the Asian Handicap market, Auxerre closed as the favored team at 0 goals (53.55% probability to cover), but neither team covered the spread due to the goalless draw. The most pronounced market inefficiency was observed in the Totals market. The closing line for Over/Under was 2.25 goals, with the market leaning towards the **Over** (51.79% implied probability). However, the match finished with a total of 0 goals, indicating a strong **Value Signal** on the **Under 2.25**. Bettors who faded the market sentiment on the Over would have realized significant Closing Line Value.
A marginally negative session at 0.0% ROI. The edge identification was sound but variance went against the positions.
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