Auxerre2 - 1Nice
AuxerreWhy did AI enter 9 times at 0', 25', 32', 36', 50', 60', 65', 70', 74' — and still finish +$4641?
Match Overview
Auxerre hosted Nice in the Ligue 1, finishing 2-1. Goals: S. Diop (9'), S. Mara (27'), L. Sinayoko (70'). OddsFlow deployed 15 trades across 9 waves, achieving 67% precision with a net result of +$4641.30 (ROI: +57.1%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap remained steady at -0.25; the Over/Under stayed at 2.5 with Over odds moving from 1.9 to 1.96.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 0' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 0'. 1 model (S5.1_Pre) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Auxerre. Average expected value was 16.8%, with a combined stake of $289. The sharpest edge was on Auxerre (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 47.7% probability versus the market's implied 40.8% — a 6.8 percentage point gap at odds of 2.45. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$419.05. ### Wave 2 — Minute 25' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Nice leading 0-1 at 25'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Over/Under markets, targeting Auxerre +0.5 and Auxerre -0.5 and Under 3.5 and Nice 0. Average expected value was 24.1%, with a combined stake of $3577. The sharpest edge was on Auxerre +0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 81.0% probability versus the market's implied 44.4% — a 36.6 percentage point gap at odds of 2.25. **Result:** 4 of 6 trades won, netting +$2410.75. ### Wave 3 — Minute 32' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1 after S. Mara's equalizer at 27'. 1 model (system4_MC_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Auxerre. Average expected value was 5.3%, with a combined stake of $500. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$937.50. ### Wave 4 — Minute 36' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1 after S. Mara's equalizer at 27'. 1 model (system4_MC_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Draw. Average expected value was 5.2%, with a combined stake of $500. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-500.00. ### Wave 5 — Minute 50' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1, 50'. 1 model (system4_BLEND_v10) entered Over/Under and Moneyline markets, targeting Under 3.5 and Draw. Average expected value was 6.3%, with a combined stake of $1000. **Result:** 1 of 2 trades won, netting $-192.50. ### Wave 6 — Minute 60' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1, 60'. 1 model (system4_MC_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Over 2.5. Average expected value was 8.0%, with a combined stake of $500. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$266.50. ### Wave 7 — Minute 65' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1, 65'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 3.5. Average expected value was 21.1%, with a combined stake of $500. The sharpest edge was on Under 3.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 63.0% probability versus the market's implied 47.6% — a 15.4 percentage point gap at odds of 2.1. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$550.00. ### Wave 8 — Minute 70' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1 after L. Sinayoko's equalizer at 70'. 1 model (system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Nice -1. Average expected value was 46.8%, with a combined stake of $759. The sharpest edge was on Nice -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 96.8% probability versus the market's implied 51.9% — a 44.9 percentage point gap at odds of 1.925. **Result:** 0 of 1 trades won, netting +$0.00. ### Wave 9 — Minute 74' (Score: 2-1) **Context:** Auxerre leading 2-1 at 74'. L. Sinayoko scored moments ago. 1 model (system4_BLEND_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Auxerre. Average expected value was 26.2%, with a combined stake of $500. The sharpest edge was on Auxerre (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 63.2% probability versus the market's implied 40.0% — a 23.2 percentage point gap at odds of 2.5. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$750.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 70'** — Asian Handicap Nice -1: AI saw 96.8% vs market's 51.9% (44.9pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Auxerre +0.5: AI saw 81.0% vs market's 44.4% (36.6pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Auxerre +0.5: AI saw 80.9% vs market's 44.4% (36.4pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 26'** — Over/Under Under 3.5: AI saw 68.2% vs market's 42.1% (26.1pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 74'** — Moneyline Auxerre: AI saw 63.2% vs market's 40.0% (23.2pp gap). correctly identified.
Model Performance
- **system4_MC_v10**: 8 trades, 5W/2L/1V, +$2637.25 (ROI: +57.9%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 5 trades, 3W/2L, +$1035.00 (ROI: +37.2%) - **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 1W/0L, +$550.00 (ROI: +110.0%) - **S5.1_Pre**: 1 trades, 1W/0L, +$419.05 (ROI: +145.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 52–48 in Auxerre's favor. Auxerre had 12 shots (4 on target) versus Nice's 9 (5 on target). Expected goals: Auxerre 0.65 — Nice 1.12. Corners: 9-1.
Verdict
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +57.1% ROI. Top performer: system4_MC_v10 at +$2637.25.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Home | 41.0% / 29.2% / 32.6% |
| Asian handicap | -0.25 | 54.6% |
| Over / Under | 2.5 | 51.0% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The market significantly undervalued the probability of Over 2.5 Goals.
Post-match analysis of Auxerre's 2-1 victory over Nice reveals a clear market inefficiency in the Totals (Over/Under) market. The closing line for Over 2.5 Goals was priced with a 51.02% implied probability, while Under 2.5 was marginally favored at 51.55%. With 3 goals scored, the Over 2.5 easily cashed, indicating a positive expected value (EV+) for bettors who identified this mispricing. The 1x2 market correctly identified Auxerre as the favorite (40.98% win probability vs Nice's 32.57%), and they secured the win. On the Asian Handicap, Auxerre (-0.25) covered despite being given only a 47.39% chance by the market, highlighting another minor error. However, the most significant value signal was on the total goals.
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +57.1% ROI on 15 trades. Top performer: HDP Sniper at +$2637.25.
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