Auxerre0 - 0Nantes
AuxerreWhy did AI enter 5 times at 25', 31', 40', 55', 64' — and still finish +$2139?
Match Overview
Auxerre hosted Nantes in the Ligue 1, finishing 0-0. OddsFlow deployed 13 trades across 5 waves, achieving 46% precision with a net result of +$2138.50 (ROI: +32.5%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap line moved from -0.25 to -0.5; the Over/Under stayed at 2.25 with Over odds moving from 2.06 to 2.01; the home moneyline shortened from 2.11 to 1.94.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 25' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 25'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Moneyline markets, targeting Nantes 0 and Auxerre and Nantes -0.5. Average expected value was 8.3%, with a combined stake of $3000. The sharpest edge was on Nantes 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 53.0% probability versus the market's implied 38.5% — a 14.5 percentage point gap at odds of 2.6. **Result:** 2 of 6 trades won, netting $-87.50. ### Wave 2 — Minute 31' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 31'. 1 model (system4_MC_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Draw. Average expected value was 6.3%, with a combined stake of $500. The sharpest edge was on Draw (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 36.0% probability versus the market's implied 29.4% — a 6.6 percentage point gap at odds of 3.4. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$1200.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 40' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 40'. 1 model (system4_BLEND_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Draw. Average expected value was 5.3%, with a combined stake of $500. The sharpest edge was on Draw (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 35.0% probability versus the market's implied 29.4% — a 5.6 percentage point gap at odds of 3.4. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$1200.00. ### Wave 4 — Minute 55' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 55'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Over 0.5. Average expected value was 8.0%, with a combined stake of $1000. **Result:** All 2 trades lost, netting $-1000.00. ### Wave 5 — Minute 64' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 64'. 1 model (system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Moneyline markets, targeting Nantes 0 and Draw and Nantes -0.5. Average expected value was 20.5%, with a combined stake of $1588. The sharpest edge was on Nantes 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 71.9% probability versus the market's implied 42.6% — a 29.3 percentage point gap at odds of 2.35. **Result:** 2 of 3 trades won, netting +$826.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 64'** — Asian Handicap Nantes 0: AI saw 71.9% vs market's 42.6% (29.3pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 66'** — Asian Handicap Nantes -0.5: AI saw 73.8% vs market's 51.9% (21.9pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Nantes 0: AI saw 53.0% vs market's 38.5% (14.5pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Nantes 0: AI saw 52.6% vs market's 40.0% (12.6pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.
Model Performance
- **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 3 trades, 2W/0L/1V, +$826.00 (ROI: +52.0%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 5 trades, 2W/2L/1V, +$662.50 (ROI: +26.5%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 5 trades, 2W/2L/1V, +$650.00 (ROI: +26.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 54%–46% in Auxerre's favor. Auxerre had 5 shots (0 on target) versus Nantes's 13 (4 on target). Expected goals: Auxerre 0.66 — Nantes 1.44. Corners: 3-2.
Verdict
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +32.5% ROI. Top performer: system4_HYBRID_v10 at +$826.00.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Home | 51.5% / 28.8% / 22.6% |
| Asian handicap | -0.5 | 51.3% |
| Over / Under | 2.25 | 49.8% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The market significantly undervalued the draw probability in the 1x2 market.
The Ligue 1 clash between Auxerre and Nantes concluded in a 0-0 stalemate. The market had Auxerre as a strong favorite in the 1x2 market, pricing their win probability at 51.55%. However, the actual outcome was a draw, an event given only a 28.82% implied probability by the closing line. This represents a significant market inefficiency, indicating that the draw was heavily undervalued. In the Asian Handicap market, Auxerre (-0.5) failed to cover, aligning with the 1x2 miss. While the Totals market correctly leaned Under 2.25 (52.91% implied probability), the outright failure of the favorite to secure a win highlights the primary mispricing. OddsFlow identifies this as a clear EV+ opportunity for bettors who fade strong home favorites in tight contests.
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +32.5% ROI on 13 trades. Top performer: Oddsflow Beta at +$826.00.
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