Angers1 - 1Strasbourg
AngersWhy did AI enter 5 times at 0', 15', 25', 28', 33' — and still finish +$1101?
Match Overview
Angers hosted Strasbourg in the Ligue 1, finishing 1-1. Goals: J. Enciso (45' pen), G. Koyalipou (70'). OddsFlow deployed 10 trades across 5 waves, achieving 40% precision with a net result of +$1101.00 (ROI: +20.8%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap line moved from 0.5 to 0; the Over/Under line shifted from 2.5 to 2.75; the home moneyline shortened from 3.9 to 2.7.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 0' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 0'. 1 model (S5.1_Pre) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Strasbourg. Average expected value was 29.0%, with a combined stake of $456. The sharpest edge was on Strasbourg (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 49.8% probability versus the market's implied 38.6% — a 11.2 percentage point gap at odds of 2.59. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-456.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 15' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 15'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Strasbourg 0. Average expected value was 23.8%, with a combined stake of $200. The sharpest edge was on Strasbourg 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 75.0% probability versus the market's implied 53.3% — a 21.7 percentage point gap at odds of 1.875. **Result:** 0 of 1 trades won, netting +$0.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 25' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 25'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Over/Under and Moneyline markets, targeting Strasbourg 0 and Under 2.5 and Draw. Average expected value was 16.4%, with a combined stake of $3149. The sharpest edge was on Strasbourg 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 76.2% probability versus the market's implied 52.6% — a 23.5 percentage point gap at odds of 1.9. **Result:** 3 of 5 trades won, netting +$1619.50. ### Wave 4 — Minute 28' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 28'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 1.5. Average expected value was 13.8%, with a combined stake of $1000. The sharpest edge was on Under 1.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 51.8% probability versus the market's implied 40.0% — a 11.8 percentage point gap at odds of 2.5. **Result:** All 2 trades lost, netting $-1000.00. ### Wave 5 — Minute 33' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 33'. 1 model (system4_BLEND_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Draw. Average expected value was 4.6%, with a combined stake of $500. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$937.50.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Strasbourg 0: AI saw 76.2% vs market's 52.6% (23.5pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Strasbourg 0: AI saw 75.9% vs market's 52.6% (23.3pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 15'** — Asian Handicap Strasbourg 0: AI saw 75.0% vs market's 53.3% (21.7pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 28'** — Over/Under Under 1.5: AI saw 51.8% vs market's 40.0% (11.8pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 28'** — Over/Under Under 1.5: AI saw 51.8% vs market's 40.0% (11.8pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.
Model Performance
- **system4_MC_v10**: 4 trades, 2W/1L/1V, +$816.00 (ROI: +34.9%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 4 trades, 2W/1L/1V, +$741.00 (ROI: +32.1%) - **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 0W/0L/1V, +$0.00 (ROI: +0.0%) - **S5.1_Pre**: 1 trades, 0W/1L, $-456.00 (ROI: -100.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 32–68 in Angers's deficit. Angers had 11 shots (4 on target) versus Strasbourg's 14 (6 on target). Expected goals: Angers 0.59 — Strasbourg 1.82. Corners: 0-2.
Verdict
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +20.8% ROI. Top performer: system4_MC_v10 at +$816.00.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Away | 37.0% / 27.9% / 37.7% |
| Asian handicap | 0 | 51.5% |
| Over / Under | 2.75 | 50.0% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The 1x2 market significantly undervalued the probability of a draw.
The match between Angers and Strasbourg concluded in a 1-1 draw. The 1x2 market closing probabilities suggested a draw at 27.93%, significantly lower than its eventual occurrence. This represents a clear market inefficiency, indicating the market undervalued the likelihood of a shared spoils outcome. In the Handicap (0) market, Strasbourg was a marginal favorite with a 51.55% probability to cover. Given the draw, neither team covered, suggesting the market accurately priced a highly competitive fixture, but failed to adequately factor in the draw potential within the handicap context. For the Totals market (O/U 2.75), the market leaned towards the Under with a 52.63% probability, which proved correct as the match yielded only 2 goals. The biggest value signal for bettors following the OddsFlow model was the **undervalued draw** in the 1x2 market.
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +20.8% ROI on 10 trades. Top performer: HDP Sniper at +$816.00.
See AI signals as they happen
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