Angers0 - 2Nice
AngersWhy did AI enter 2 times at 25', 66' — and still finish +$1433?
Match Overview
Angers hosted Nice in the Ligue 1, finishing 0-2. Goals: M. Bard (65'). OddsFlow deployed 8 trades across 2 waves, achieving 50% precision with a net result of +$1432.93 (ROI: +32.8%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at 0.25 but home odds shifted from 1.87 to 1.88; the Over/Under line shifted from 2.5 to 2.25.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 25' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 25'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Moneyline and Asian Handicap markets, targeting Draw and Nice 0. Average expected value was 18.6%, with a combined stake of $2373. The sharpest edge was on Draw (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 56.0% probability versus the market's implied 36.4% — a 19.7 percentage point gap at odds of 2.75. **Result:** 2 of 4 trades won, netting $-4.57. ### Wave 2 — Minute 66' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Nice leading 0-1 at 66'. M. Bard scored moments ago. Nice made 5 substitutions. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Moneyline and Asian Handicap markets, targeting Nice and Angers +1. Average expected value was 35.0%, with a combined stake of $2000. The sharpest edge was on Nice (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 79.7% probability versus the market's implied 40.0% — a 39.7 percentage point gap at odds of 2.5. **Result:** 2 of 4 trades won, netting +$1437.50.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 66'** — Moneyline Nice: AI saw 79.7% vs market's 40.0% (39.7pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 67'** — Asian Handicap Angers +1: AI saw 80.5% vs market's 47.1% (33.4pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 67'** — Asian Handicap Angers +1: AI saw 80.2% vs market's 47.1% (33.2pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 66'** — Moneyline Nice: AI saw 65.1% vs market's 42.1% (23.0pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 25'** — Moneyline Draw: AI saw 56.0% vs market's 36.4% (19.7pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.
Model Performance
- **system4_MC_v10**: 4 trades, 2W/1L/1V, +$743.00 (ROI: +34.1%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 4 trades, 2W/1L/1V, +$689.93 (ROI: +31.5%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 46%–54% in Angers's deficit. Angers had 8 shots (0 on target) versus Nice's 10 (6 on target). Expected goals: Angers 0.88 — Nice 1.21. Corners: 6-6.
Verdict
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +32.8% ROI. Top performer: system4_MC_v10 at +$743.00.
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +32.8% ROI on 8 trades. Top performer: HDP Sniper at +$743.00.
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