Angers0 - 0Lyon
AngersWhy did AI enter 5 times at 36', 41', 46', 64', 73' — and still finish +$3894?
Match Overview
Angers hosted Lyon in the Ligue 1, finishing 0-0. OddsFlow deployed 11 trades across 5 waves, achieving 55% precision with a net result of +$3894.40 (ROI: +68.1%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap line moved from 0.5 to 0.75; the home moneyline drifted out from 4.73 to 4.89.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 36' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 36'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Lyon +1. Average expected value was 13.2%, with a combined stake of $1500. The sharpest edge was on Lyon +1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 50.9% probability versus the market's implied 40.0% — a 10.9 percentage point gap at odds of 2.5. **Result:** All 3 trades lost, netting $-1500.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 41' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 41'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Moneyline and Asian Handicap markets, targeting Draw and Angers +0.5. Average expected value was 7.4%, with a combined stake of $1500. The sharpest edge was on Angers +0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 50.8% probability versus the market's implied 41.2% — a 9.6 percentage point gap at odds of 2.425. **Result:** All 3 trades won, netting +$2750.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 46' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 46'. 1 model (system4_MC_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Draw. Average expected value was 12.2%, with a combined stake of $1000. The sharpest edge was on Draw (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 38.8% probability versus the market's implied 25.0% — a 13.8 percentage point gap at odds of 4. **Result:** All 2 trades won, netting +$3000.00. ### Wave 4 — Minute 64' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 64'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Over 0.5. Average expected value was 8.0%, with a combined stake of $1000. **Result:** All 2 trades lost, netting $-1000.00. ### Wave 5 — Minute 73' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 73'. Angers made 4 substitutions. 1 model (system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Angers +1. Average expected value was 25.8%, with a combined stake of $716. The sharpest edge was on Angers +1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 76.4% probability versus the market's implied 52.6% — a 23.8 percentage point gap at odds of 1.9. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$644.40.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 73'** — Asian Handicap Angers +1: AI saw 76.4% vs market's 52.6% (23.8pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 46'** — Moneyline Draw: AI saw 38.8% vs market's 25.0% (13.8pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 46'** — Moneyline Draw: AI saw 38.8% vs market's 25.0% (13.8pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 36'** — Asian Handicap Lyon +1: AI saw 50.9% vs market's 40.0% (10.9pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 36'** — Asian Handicap Lyon +1: AI saw 50.8% vs market's 40.0% (10.8pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.
Model Performance
- **system4_MC_v10**: 6 trades, 3W/3L, +$2037.50 (ROI: +67.9%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 5 trades, 3W/2L, +$1856.90 (ROI: +68.4%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 32%–68% in Angers's deficit. Angers had 7 shots (1 on target) versus Lyon's 11 (2 on target). Expected goals: Angers 0.29 — Lyon 0.85. Corners: 2-7.
Verdict
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +68.1% ROI. Top performer: system4_MC_v10 at +$2037.50.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Away | 20.4% / 28.0% / 55.3% |
| Asian handicap | +0.75 | 47.6% |
| Over / Under | 2.25 | 51.8% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The market significantly overestimated the goal total, making Under 2.25 an EV+ opportunity.
The Ligue 1 fixture between Angers and Lyon concluded in an unexpected 0-0 draw. The 1x2 market, guided by our ML model, had Lyon as the clear favorite (55.25% win probability), with the draw at 28.01%. While the draw occurred, the market significantly misjudged the goal total. The Asian Handicap line of Lyon -0.75 saw the market slightly favor Angers (+0.75) to cover (54.64%), which proved correct. However, the most pronounced market inefficiency was in the Totals market. The closing line of 2.25 goals showed a slight lean towards the Over (51.81% probability). With zero goals scored, the Under 2.25 was an undisputed EV+ signal, indicating that bookmakers significantly overestimated the match's scoring potential. This was a clear value bet for the discerning bettor.
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +68.1% ROI on 11 trades. Top performer: HDP Sniper at +$2037.50.
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