Angers1 - 1Le Havre
AngersWhy did AI enter 2 times at 25', 28' — and still finish +$6371?
Match Overview
Angers hosted Le Havre in the Ligue 1, finishing 1-1. Goals: S. Boufal (13'), P. Peter (28'). Le Havre received a red card (A. Sangante, 75'). OddsFlow deployed 19 trades across 2 waves, achieving 63% precision with a net result of +$6371.00 (ROI: +65.5%).
Pre-Match Odds
Pre-match odds showed minimal movement.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 25' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Le Havre leading 0-1 at 25'. 3 models (system4_HYBRID_v10, system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Over/Under and Asian Handicap and Moneyline markets, targeting Over 1.5 and Angers +0.5 and Le Havre and Angers +1. Average expected value was 22.3%, with a combined stake of $5228. The sharpest edge was on Angers +0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 68.6% probability versus the market's implied 36.4% — a 32.3 percentage point gap at odds of 2.75. **Result:** 7 of 10 trades won, netting +$1621.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 28' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Le Havre leading 0-1 at 28'. P. Peter scored moments ago. 3 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_HYBRID_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Moneyline and Over/Under markets, targeting Angers +0.5 and Draw and Over 2.5 and Le Havre 0. Average expected value was 18.5%, with a combined stake of $4500. The sharpest edge was on Angers +0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 68.6% probability versus the market's implied 36.4% — a 32.2 percentage point gap at odds of 2.75. **Result:** 5 of 9 trades won, netting +$4750.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Angers +0.5: AI saw 68.6% vs market's 36.4% (32.3pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 28'** — Asian Handicap Angers +0.5: AI saw 68.6% vs market's 36.4% (32.2pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 25'** — Moneyline Le Havre: AI saw 72.1% vs market's 41.7% (30.5pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 25'** — Moneyline Le Havre: AI saw 72.1% vs market's 41.7% (30.5pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 30'** — Asian Handicap Angers +0.5: AI saw 61.6% vs market's 36.4% (25.3pp gap). correctly identified.
Model Performance
- **system4_BLEND_v10**: 7 trades, 4W/2L/1V, +$2183.00 (ROI: +62.4%) - **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 5 trades, 4W/1L, +$2094.00 (ROI: +80.1%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 7 trades, 4W/2L/1V, +$2094.00 (ROI: +57.9%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 44%–56% in Angers's deficit. Angers had 10 shots (5 on target) versus Le Havre's 14 (7 on target). Expected goals: Angers 1.02 — Le Havre 1.51. Corners: 4-3.
Verdict
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +65.5% ROI. Top performer: system4_BLEND_v10 at +$2183.00.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Away | 28.7% / 32.1% / 41.8% |
| Asian handicap | +0.25 | 49.5% |
| Over / Under | 2.25 | 47.0% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The 1x2 market significantly undervalued the draw.
The Ligue 1 clash between Angers and Le Havre concluded in a 1-1 draw. OddsFlow AI's post-match analysis highlights a clear market inefficiency in the 1x2 market. The closing line had Le Havre as the perceived favorite with a 41.84% implied win probability, while the draw was priced at a 32.15% probability. The actual outcome, a draw, suggests that the market significantly undervalued the draw outcome. In the Asian Handicap market, with a line of 0.25 (Le Havre -0.25), the market correctly leaned towards Angers (+0.25) covering with a 52.63% probability, which hit with the draw. Similarly, the Goals Over/Under market, set at 2.25, accurately predicted the "Under" with a 55.87% probability, as only two goals were scored. The most notable value signal was the draw in the 1x2 market.
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +65.5% ROI on 19 trades. Top performer: Active Trader at +$2183.00.
See AI signals as they happen
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