Villarreal2 - 3Sevilla
VillarrealWhy did AI enter 4 times at 40', 49', 62', 73' — and still finish +$1063?
Match Overview
Villarreal hosted Sevilla in the La Liga, finishing 2-3. Goals: G. Moreno (13'), G. Mikautadze (20'), Oso (36'), K. Salas (45'), A. Adams (72'). OddsFlow deployed 24 trades across 4 waves, achieving 54% precision with a net result of +$1063.30 (ROI: +13.7%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at -0.5 but home odds shifted from 2.05 to 1.95; the home moneyline shortened from 2.04 to 1.94.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 40' (Score: 2-1) **Context:** Villarreal leading 2-1 at 40'. Oso scored moments ago. 3 models (oddsflow_core_v8.1, system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Moneyline markets, targeting Sevilla 0 and Sevilla -1 and Villarreal. Average expected value was 39.9%, with a combined stake of $4298. The sharpest edge was on Sevilla 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 88.1% probability versus the market's implied 52.9% — a 35.2 percentage point gap at odds of 1.89. **Result:** 9 of 13 trades won, netting +$797.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 49' (Score: 2-2) **Context:** Level at 2-2 after K. Salas's equalizer at 45'. 1 model (system4_MC_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Draw. Average expected value was 5.0%, with a combined stake of $550. **Result:** All 2 trades lost, netting $-550.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 62' (Score: 2-2) **Context:** Level at 2-2, 62'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Over/Under and Moneyline markets, targeting Over 4.5 and Draw. Average expected value was 6.9%, with a combined stake of $1500. **Result:** 2 of 3 trades won, netting +$33.00. ### Wave 4 — Minute 73' (Score: 2-3) **Context:** Sevilla leading 2-3 at 73'. A. Adams scored moments ago. Sevilla made 4 substitutions. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Villarreal +1 and Villarreal 0. Average expected value was 37.2%, with a combined stake of $1419. The sharpest edge was on Villarreal 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 82.7% probability versus the market's implied 57.1% — a 25.6 percentage point gap at odds of 1.75. **Result:** 2 of 6 trades won, netting +$783.30.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 41'** — Asian Handicap Sevilla 0: AI saw 88.1% vs market's 52.9% (35.2pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 40'** — Asian Handicap Sevilla -1: AI saw 87.7% vs market's 53.3% (34.4pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 40'** — Asian Handicap Sevilla 0: AI saw 87.7% vs market's 53.5% (34.3pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 40'** — Asian Handicap Sevilla -1: AI saw 87.2% vs market's 53.3% (33.9pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 40'** — Asian Handicap Sevilla 0: AI saw 87.2% vs market's 53.5% (33.7pp gap). correctly identified.
Model Performance
- **system4_BLEND_v10**: 9 trades, 5W/2L/2V, +$503.82 (ROI: +14.1%) - **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 3 trades, 3W/0L, +$299.50 (ROI: +85.6%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 12 trades, 5W/5L/2V, +$259.97 (ROI: +6.8%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 62–38 in Villarreal's favor. Villarreal had 6 shots (4 on target) versus Sevilla's 13 (5 on target). Expected goals: Villarreal 0.81 — Sevilla 0.88. Corners: 5-4.
Verdict
A positive result for OddsFlow with +13.7% ROI. The models found genuine edges though not all converted. Top performer: system4_BLEND_v10 at +$503.82.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Home | 0.5% / 0.3% / 0.2% |
| Asian handicap | -0.5 | 0.5% |
| Over / Under | 2.5 | 0.5% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The 1x2 market significantly underestimated Sevilla's win probability.
The clash between Villarreal and Sevilla concluded with an unexpected 2-3 away victory for Sevilla. The 1x2 market heavily favored Villarreal with an implied win probability of 51.55%, while Sevilla's win probability was a mere 23.47%. This outcome represents a significant market inefficiency, highlighting a strong Value Signal on the away team. In the Handicap market, with a line of -0.5 for Villarreal, Sevilla successfully covered as the underdog, further underscoring the market's misjudgment of their true capabilities. The Totals market, set at 2.5 goals, correctly leaned towards the Over with 5 goals scored, showing reasonable efficiency in that specific line.
A positive result with +13.7% ROI. The models found genuine edges, finishing at +$1063.30. Top performer: Active Trader at +$503.82.
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