Villarreal5 - 1Levante
VillarrealWhy did AI enter 7 times at 15', 25', 29', 38', 52', 57', 62' — and still finish $-15334?
Match Overview
Villarreal hosted Levante in the La Liga, finishing 5-1. Goals: G. Mikautadze (38'), C. Espi (51'), A. Moleiro (62'), G. Mikautadze (68'), T. Buchanan (87'), N. Pepe (90'). OddsFlow deployed 27 trades across 7 waves, achieving 0% precision with a net result of $-15334.00 (ROI: -100.0%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap line moved from -1 to -0.75; the Over/Under stayed at 3 with Over odds moving from 1.79 to 1.89; the home moneyline drifted out from 1.5 to 1.71.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 15' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 15'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Levante -0.5. Average expected value was 13.4%, with a combined stake of $200. The sharpest edge was on Levante -0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 58.8% probability versus the market's implied 48.2% — a 10.6 percentage point gap at odds of 2.075. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-200.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 25' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 25'. 3 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10, system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Moneyline markets, targeting Levante -0.5 and Levante. Average expected value was 11.5%, with a combined stake of $2500. The sharpest edge was on Levante -0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 60.6% probability versus the market's implied 48.2% — a 12.4 percentage point gap at odds of 2.075. **Result:** All 5 trades lost, netting $-2500.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 29' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 29'. 1 model (system4_BLEND_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 2.5. Average expected value was 7.5%, with a combined stake of $500. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-500.00. ### Wave 4 — Minute 38' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Villarreal leading 1-0 at 38'. G. Mikautadze scored moments ago. 3 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10, system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Over/Under markets, targeting Levante -1.5 and Under 3.5 and Levante -1 and Under 2.5. Average expected value was 28.9%, with a combined stake of $6551. The sharpest edge was on Levante -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 89.4% probability versus the market's implied 37.4% — a 52.0 percentage point gap at odds of 2.675. **Result:** All 11 trades lost, netting $-6551.00. ### Wave 5 — Minute 52' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1 after C. Espi's equalizer at 51'. 3 models (system4_HYBRID_v10, system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Moneyline markets, targeting Levante 0 and Draw. Average expected value was 22.5%, with a combined stake of $2500. The sharpest edge was on Levante 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 66.3% probability versus the market's implied 36.4% — a 29.9 percentage point gap at odds of 2.75. **Result:** All 5 trades lost, netting $-2500.00. ### Wave 6 — Minute 57' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1 after C. Espi's equalizer at 51'. 1 model (system4_BLEND_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Draw. Average expected value was 4.5%, with a combined stake of $500. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-500.00. ### Wave 7 — Minute 62' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1 after A. Moleiro's equalizer at 62'. 3 models (system4_HYBRID_v10, system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 4.5. Average expected value was 28.7%, with a combined stake of $2583. The sharpest edge was on Under 4.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 92.3% probability versus the market's implied 66.7% — a 25.7 percentage point gap at odds of 1.5. **Result:** All 3 trades lost, netting $-2583.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 39'** — Asian Handicap Levante -1: AI saw 89.4% vs market's 37.4% (52.0pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 39'** — Asian Handicap Levante -1: AI saw 89.4% vs market's 37.4% (52.0pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 39'** — Asian Handicap Levante -1: AI saw 89.2% vs market's 37.4% (51.8pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 38'** — Asian Handicap Levante -1.5: AI saw 89.4% vs market's 53.3% (36.1pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 38'** — Asian Handicap Levante -1.5: AI saw 89.4% vs market's 53.3% (36.0pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.
Model Performance
- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 0W/1L, $-200.00 (ROI: -100.0%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 8 trades, 0W/8L, $-4786.00 (ROI: -100.0%) - **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 9 trades, 0W/9L, $-5171.00 (ROI: -100.0%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 9 trades, 0W/9L, $-5177.00 (ROI: -100.0%)
Match Statistics
Villarreal had 13 shots (3 on target) versus Levante's 0 (0 on target).
Verdict
A tough session at -100.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions, though the underlying probability assessments may still prove correct over a larger sample. Top performer: oddsflow_core_v8.1 at $-200.00.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Home | 58.5% / 23.6% / 21.7% |
| Asian handicap | -0.75 | 52.4% |
| Over / Under | 3 | 52.9% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The Over 3 Goals market was significantly undervalued.
The match between Villarreal and Levante concluded with a resounding 5-1 victory for Villarreal. In the 1x2 market, Villarreal was correctly identified as the favorite (58.48% implied probability) and delivered, securing the home win. The Asian Handicap of -0.75 for Villarreal proved to be a clear winner, as they covered the spread emphatically with a four-goal margin. However, the most notable market inefficiency was observed in the Goals Over/Under market. Despite a closing line of 3 goals with the market leaning slightly towards the Over (52.91% probability), the actual total goals reached 6, demonstrating a significant mispricing of the game's offensive potential. This presents a strong EV+ signal for the Over.
A tough session at -100.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions. Top performer: Oddsflow Core Strategy at $-200.00.
See AI signals as they happen
This report shows settled results. Get real-time AI signals during live matches.