Villarreal5 - 1Atletico Madrid
VillarrealWhy did AI enter 6 times at 0', 15', 21', 30', 34', 42' — and still finish $-392?
Match Overview
Villarreal hosted Atletico Madrid in the La Liga, finishing 5-1. Goals: D. Parejo (30' pen), A. Perez (34'), G. Mikautadze (40'), G. Mikautadze (41'), M. Pubill (43'), P. Gueye (45'), A. Perez (54'). OddsFlow deployed 37 trades across 6 waves, achieving 41% precision with a net result of $-392.43 (ROI: -17.9%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at 0 but home odds shifted from 1.83 to 1.93; the Over/Under stayed at 3.25 with Over odds moving from 1.94 to 1.87; the home moneyline drifted out from 2.44 to 2.54.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 0' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 0'. 1 model (S5.1_Pre) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 3.5. Average expected value was 17.5%, with a combined stake of $10. The sharpest edge was on Under 3.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 62.5% probability versus the market's implied 53.2% — a 9.3 percentage point gap at odds of 1.88. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-10.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 15' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 15'. 3 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10, system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Moneyline and Over/Under markets, targeting Draw and Under 3.5 and Under 3 and Under 3.25. Average expected value was 26.7%, with a combined stake of $806. The sharpest edge was on Under 3 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 73.3% probability versus the market's implied 49.8% — a 23.6 percentage point gap at odds of 2.01. **Result:** All 13 trades lost, netting $-806.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 21' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 21'. 3 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_HYBRID_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 2.5. Average expected value was 13.3%, with a combined stake of $180. The sharpest edge was on Under 2.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 57.5% probability versus the market's implied 45.5% — a 12.0 percentage point gap at odds of 2.2. **Result:** All 3 trades lost, netting $-180.00. ### Wave 4 — Minute 30' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Villarreal leading 1-0 at 30'. D. Parejo scored moments ago. 4 models (system4_HYBRID_v10, oddsflow_core_v8.1, system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Moneyline markets, targeting Atletico Madrid +0.5 and Atletico Madrid -1 and Villarreal and Atletico Madrid -0.5. Average expected value was 24.0%, with a combined stake of $684. The sharpest edge was on Atletico Madrid -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 92.6% probability versus the market's implied 58.0% — a 34.6 percentage point gap at odds of 1.725. **Result:** 6 of 11 trades won, netting +$68.76. ### Wave 5 — Minute 34' (Score: 2-0) **Context:** Villarreal leading 2-0 at 34'. A. Perez scored moments ago. 3 models (system4_HYBRID_v10, system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Over 3.5. Average expected value was 9.1%, with a combined stake of $180. The sharpest edge was on Over 3.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 54.4% probability versus the market's implied 47.6% — a 6.8 percentage point gap at odds of 2.1. **Result:** All 3 trades won, netting +$198.00. ### Wave 6 — Minute 42' (Score: 3-0) **Context:** Villarreal leading 3-0 at 42'. G. Mikautadze scored moments ago. 3 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10, system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Over 3.25. Average expected value was 32.2%, with a combined stake of $327. The sharpest edge was on Over 3.25 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 70.0% probability versus the market's implied 49.3% — a 20.7 percentage point gap at odds of 2.03. **Result:** All 6 trades won, netting +$336.81.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 30'** — Asian Handicap Atletico Madrid -1: AI saw 92.6% vs market's 58.0% (34.6pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 15'** — Over/Under Under 3: AI saw 73.3% vs market's 49.8% (23.6pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 15'** — Over/Under Under 3: AI saw 72.9% vs market's 49.8% (23.1pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 15'** — Over/Under Under 3: AI saw 71.5% vs market's 50.0% (21.5pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 42'** — Over/Under Over 3.25: AI saw 70.0% vs market's 49.3% (20.7pp gap). correctly identified.
Model Performance
- **system4_BLEND_v10**: 9 trades, 5W/4L, +$26.95 (ROI: +4.9%) - **S5.1_Pre**: 1 trades, 0W/1L, $-10.00 (ROI: -100.0%) - **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 12 trades, 5W/7L, $-72.19 (ROI: -10.6%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 13 trades, 5W/8L, $-137.19 (ROI: -18.5%) - **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 2 trades, 0W/2L, $-200.00 (ROI: -100.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 48–52 in Villarreal's deficit. Villarreal had 14 shots (8 on target) versus Atletico Madrid's 9 (4 on target). Expected goals: Villarreal 2.45 — Atletico Madrid 1.16. Corners: 5-7.
Verdict
A tough session at -17.9% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions, though the underlying probability assessments may still prove correct over a larger sample. Top performer: system4_BLEND_v10 at +$26.95.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Home | 39.4% / 25.6% / 37.9% |
| Asian handicap | 0 | 51.8% |
| Over / Under | 3.25 | 53.5% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The market massively underestimated the total goals, presenting significant value on the Over 3.25 Goals line.
The match saw Villarreal dominate Atletico Madrid with a resounding 5-1 victory. The 1x2 market had Villarreal as a slight favorite (39.37% implied probability), but the magnitude of their win was severely underestimated, indicating a potential **value bet** on the home side beyond simple win/loss. On the Asian Handicap (0 line), Villarreal (51.81% to cover) easily covered, demonstrating a clear **Market Inefficiency** as the market failed to price their dominance accurately. The most significant error was in the Totals market: despite the closing line leaning **Over 3.25 Goals** (53.48% probability), the actual total of 6 goals far exceeded market expectations, confirming a substantial **Closing Line Value (CLV)** for those who backed the Over. This indicates a strong **value signal** overlooked by the broader market.
A tough session at -17.9% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions. Top performer: Active Trader at +$26.95.
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