Valencia1 - 0Osasuna
Valencia1 trades, 100% precision — how did AI read this match?
Match Overview
Valencia hosted Osasuna in the La Liga, finishing 1-0. Goals: L. Ramazani (67' pen). OddsFlow deployed 1 trades across 1 wave, achieving 100% precision with a net result of +$1197.55 (ROI: +160.0%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at -0.25 but home odds shifted from 1.96 to 2.12; the Over/Under stayed at 2.25 with Over odds moving from 1.92 to 2.07; the home moneyline drifted out from 2.31 to 2.49.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 25' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 25'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Valencia. Average expected value was 9.6%, with a combined stake of $748. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$1197.55.
Model Performance
- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 1W/0L, +$1197.55 (ROI: +160.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 48%–52% in Valencia's deficit. Valencia had 13 shots (1 on target) versus Osasuna's 8 (0 on target). Expected goals: Valencia 1.64 — Osasuna 0.31. Corners: 5-4.
Verdict
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +160.0% ROI.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Home | 40.2% / 31.9% / 30.7% |
| Asian handicap | -0.25 | 47.2% |
| Over / Under | 2.25 | 48.3% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
Handicap market underestimated Valencia's ability to cover the -0.25 line.
Valencia secured a 1-0 victory over Osasuna in this La Liga clash. The 1x2 market accurately priced Valencia as the favorite with a 40.16% implied win probability, aligning with the actual outcome. However, the Asian Handicap market presented a clear inefficiency. Despite the closing line of Valencia -0.25, the market slightly favored Osasuna +0.25 (54.64% probability). Valencia's 1-0 win meant they comfortably covered the -0.25 handicap, indicating that the market significantly undervalued Valencia's outright winning potential. Conversely, the Totals market (O/U 2.25) showed strong efficiency, with the market leaning towards the Under (54.05% probability) which was confirmed by the single goal scored in the match. Astute bettors identifying the value on Valencia -0.25 would have seen a profitable EV+ signal.
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +160.0% ROI on 1 trades.
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