Valencia3 - 1Barcelona
ValenciaWhat went wrong? 1 trades, $-60 — the AI's post-mortem.
Match Overview
Valencia hosted Barcelona in the La Liga, finishing 3-1. Goals: R. Lewandowski (61'), J. Guerra (66'), L. Rioja (71'), G. Rodriguez (90'). OddsFlow deployed 1 trades across 1 wave, achieving 0% precision with a net result of $-60.00 (ROI: -100.0%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at 0.5 but home odds shifted from 1.97 to 1.88; the Over/Under line shifted from 3.25 to 3; the home moneyline shortened from 3.59 to 3.43.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 10' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 10'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Barcelona +1. Average expected value was 16.1%, with a combined stake of $60. The sharpest edge was on Barcelona +1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 50.3% probability versus the market's implied 36.4% — a 13.9 percentage point gap at odds of 2.75. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-60.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 10'** — Asian Handicap Barcelona +1: AI saw 50.3% vs market's 36.4% (13.9pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.
Model Performance
- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 0W/1L, $-60.00 (ROI: -100.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 24–76 in Valencia's deficit. Valencia had 18 shots (5 on target) versus Barcelona's 11 (4 on target). Expected goals: Valencia 1.38 — Barcelona 1.36. Corners: 7-8.
Verdict
A tough session at -100.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions, though the underlying probability assessments may still prove correct over a larger sample.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Away | 29.1% / 24.8% / 49.0% |
| Asian handicap | +0.5 | 48.8% |
| Over / Under | 3 | 54.0% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The considerable underestimation of Valencia's outright win potential.
Valencia delivered a decisive 3-1 victory over Barcelona. The 1x2 market significantly mispriced this outcome; Barcelona was installed as the heavy market favorite with a 49.02% implied win probability, while Valencia's outright win was given only a 29.15% chance. This represents a substantial market inefficiency. On the Asian Handicap, Barcelona closed at -0.5, with Valencia easily covering their +0.5 line with a two-goal winning margin. This further underscores the market's undervaluation of the home side. The Totals market closed at 3 goals, with a slight lean towards the Over (54.05% probability). With 4 goals scored, the Over 3.0 goals line proved to be an EV+ signal. The most pronounced market error was the considerable underestimation of Valencia's capability to secure an outright win.
A tough session at -100.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions.
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