Sevilla

0 - 2

Valencia

Sevilla hosted Valencia in the La Liga, finishing 0-2. Goals: H. Duro (38'), L. Ramazani (45'). OddsFlow deployed 11 trades across 4 waves, achieving 64% precision with a net result of +$4251.50 (ROI: +76.8%).

The Asian Handicap held at -0.25 but home odds shifted from 1.9 to 1.99; the Over/Under stayed at 2 with Over odds moving from 1.85 to 1.8; the home moneyline drifted out from 2.22 to 2.34.

### Wave 1 — Minute 25' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 25'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Moneyline and Asian Handicap and Over/Under markets, targeting Valencia and Valencia 0 and Over 1.5. Average expected value was 18.1%, with a combined stake of $3081. The sharpest edge was on Valencia 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 71.0% probability versus the market's implied 38.5% — a 32.5 percentage point gap at odds of 2.6. **Result:** All 6 trades won, netting +$5638.60. ### Wave 2 — Minute 39' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Valencia leading 0-1 at 39'. H. Duro scored moments ago. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Sevilla +0.5. Average expected value was 24.6%, with a combined stake of $1000. The sharpest edge was on Sevilla +0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 69.5% probability versus the market's implied 47.6% — a 21.9 percentage point gap at odds of 2.1. **Result:** All 2 trades lost, netting $-1000.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 47' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Valencia leading 0-1 at 47'. null scored moments ago. Sevilla made 3 substitutions. 1 model (system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Moneyline markets, targeting Sevilla +0.5 and Valencia. Average expected value was 22.9%, with a combined stake of $1253. The sharpest edge was on Sevilla +0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 71.6% probability versus the market's implied 44.4% — a 27.2 percentage point gap at odds of 2.25. **Result:** 1 of 2 trades won, netting $-187.10. ### Wave 4 — Minute 60' (Score: 0-2) **Context:** Valencia leading 0-2 at 60'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Valencia +0.75. Average expected value was 9.6%, with a combined stake of $200. The sharpest edge was on Valencia +0.75 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 57.2% probability versus the market's implied 47.6% — a 9.6 percentage point gap at odds of 2.1. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-200.00.

- **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Valencia 0: AI saw 71.0% vs market's 38.5% (32.5pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Valencia 0: AI saw 70.6% vs market's 38.5% (32.1pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 47'** — Asian Handicap Sevilla +0.5: AI saw 71.6% vs market's 44.4% (27.2pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 39'** — Asian Handicap Sevilla +0.5: AI saw 69.5% vs market's 47.6% (21.9pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 39'** — Asian Handicap Sevilla +0.5: AI saw 69.2% vs market's 47.6% (21.6pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.

- **system4_BLEND_v10**: 4 trades, 3W/1L, +$2324.90 (ROI: +113.7%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 4 trades, 3W/1L, +$2313.70 (ROI: +113.6%) - **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 2 trades, 1W/1L, $-187.10 (ROI: -14.9%) - **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 0W/1L, $-200.00 (ROI: -100.0%)

Possession was 58%–42% in Sevilla's favor. Sevilla had 11 shots (1 on target) versus Valencia's 9 (4 on target). Expected goals: Sevilla 0.36 — Valencia 1.81. Corners: 1-3.