Sevilla1 - 0Real Sociedad
SevillaWhy did AI enter 3 times at 15', 25', 51' — and still finish $-2833?
Match Overview
Sevilla hosted Real Sociedad in the La Liga, finishing 1-0. Goals: A. Sanchez (50'). OddsFlow deployed 13 trades across 3 waves, achieving 23% precision with a net result of $-2833.13 (ROI: -39.4%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at -0.25 but home odds shifted from 2.1 to 2.15.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 15' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 15'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Real Sociedad 0. Average expected value was 32.1%, with a combined stake of $200. The sharpest edge was on Real Sociedad 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 75.0% probability versus the market's implied 45.5% — a 29.5 percentage point gap at odds of 2.2. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-200.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 25' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 25'. 3 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10, system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Over/Under and Moneyline markets, targeting Real Sociedad 0 and Over 1.5 and Real Sociedad. Average expected value was 20.3%, with a combined stake of $4936. The sharpest edge was on Real Sociedad 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 75.9% probability versus the market's implied 41.2% — a 34.7 percentage point gap at odds of 2.425. **Result:** All 9 trades lost, netting $-4936.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 51' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Sevilla leading 1-0 at 51'. null scored moments ago. 3 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_HYBRID_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Real Sociedad -1. Average expected value was 51.2%, with a combined stake of $2047. The sharpest edge was on Real Sociedad -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 96.6% probability versus the market's implied 47.1% — a 49.5 percentage point gap at odds of 2.125. **Result:** All 3 trades won, netting +$2302.88.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 51'** — Asian Handicap Real Sociedad -1: AI saw 96.6% vs market's 47.1% (49.5pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 51'** — Asian Handicap Real Sociedad -1: AI saw 96.5% vs market's 47.1% (49.5pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 51'** — Asian Handicap Real Sociedad -1: AI saw 96.0% vs market's 47.1% (48.9pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Real Sociedad 0: AI saw 75.9% vs market's 41.2% (34.7pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Real Sociedad 0: AI saw 75.3% vs market's 41.2% (34.1pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.
Model Performance
- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 0W/1L, $-200.00 (ROI: -100.0%) - **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 4 trades, 1W/3L, $-873.37 (ROI: -37.5%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 4 trades, 1W/3L, $-876.37 (ROI: -37.9%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 4 trades, 1W/3L, $-883.37 (ROI: -37.8%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 43–57 in Sevilla's deficit. Sevilla had 19 shots (5 on target) versus Real Sociedad's 5 (0 on target). Expected goals: Sevilla 1.39 — Real Sociedad 0.12. Corners: 3-3.
Verdict
A tough session at -39.4% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions, though the underlying probability assessments may still prove correct over a larger sample. Top performer: oddsflow_core_v8.1 at $-200.00.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Home | 40.0% / 29.3% / 33.3% |
| Asian handicap | -0.25 | 46.5% |
| Over / Under | 2.5 | 50.3% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
Handicap Value: Sevilla -0.25
The match between Sevilla and Real Sociedad concluded with a 1-0 victory for Sevilla. The 1x2 market correctly identified Sevilla as the slight favorite (40% implied probability), aligning with the outright win. However, the most notable **market inefficiency** occurred in the Asian Handicap. With a line of -0.25, the market surprisingly favored Real Sociedad to cover (+0.25) with a 55.56% probability, while Sevilla covering -0.25 was priced at 46.51%. Sevilla's 1-0 win meant they comfortably **covered the -0.25 handicap**, indicating a strong **Closing Line Value (CLV)** on Sevilla -0.25. The Total Goals market (O/U 2.5) had a slight lean towards the Under (52.08% probability for Under), which proved accurate given only one goal was scored. OddsFlow's model highlights the **mispricing in the handicap market** as the primary source of value.
A tough session at -39.4% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions. Top performer: Oddsflow Core Strategy at $-200.00.
See AI signals as they happen
This report shows settled results. Get real-time AI signals during live matches.