Sevilla0 - 1Real Madrid
SevillaWhy did AI enter 6 times at 0', 10', 15', 33', 45', 94' — and still finish +$1144?
Match Overview
Sevilla hosted Real Madrid in the La Liga, finishing 0-1. Goals: Vinicius Junior (15'). OddsFlow deployed 14 trades across 6 waves, achieving 93% precision with a net result of +$1143.96 (ROI: +94.7%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at 0.25 but home odds shifted from 1.94 to 1.99.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 0' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 0'. 1 model (S5.1_Pre) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Real Madrid. Average expected value was 23.7%, with a combined stake of $39. The sharpest edge was on Real Madrid (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 56.0% probability versus the market's implied 44.8% — a 11.2 percentage point gap at odds of 2.23. **Result:** All 2 trades won, netting +$46.81. ### Wave 2 — Minute 10' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 10'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Real Madrid +0.5. Average expected value was 6.3%, with a combined stake of $60. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$64.50. ### Wave 3 — Minute 15' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 15'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Moneyline and Asian Handicap markets, targeting Real Madrid and Sevilla +1. Average expected value was 8.7%, with a combined stake of $135. **Result:** 2 of 3 trades won, netting +$89.25. ### Wave 4 — Minute 33' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Real Madrid leading 0-1 at 33'. 1 model (system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Over/Under and Asian Handicap markets, targeting Under 3.5 and Sevilla +1 and Under 3 and Under 2.5. Average expected value was 25.8%, with a combined stake of $354. The sharpest edge was on Under 3 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 77.6% probability versus the market's implied 54.6% — a 23.0 percentage point gap at odds of 1.83. **Result:** All 5 trades won, netting +$315.00. ### Wave 5 — Minute 45' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Real Madrid leading 0-1 at 45'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 2.5. Average expected value was 15.3%, with a combined stake of $120. The sharpest edge was on Under 2.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 62.2% probability versus the market's implied 48.3% — a 13.9 percentage point gap at odds of 2.07. **Result:** All 2 trades won, netting +$128.40. ### Wave 6 — Minute 94' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Real Madrid leading 0-1 at 94'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 2.5. Average expected value was 21.1%, with a combined stake of $500. The sharpest edge was on Under 2.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 63.0% probability versus the market's implied 50.0% — a 13.0 percentage point gap at odds of 2. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$500.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 33'** — Over/Under Under 3: AI saw 77.6% vs market's 54.6% (23.0pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 33'** — Over/Under Under 3: AI saw 77.6% vs market's 54.6% (23.0pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 33'** — Asian Handicap Sevilla +1: AI saw 64.9% vs market's 47.6% (17.3pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 45'** — Over/Under Under 2.5: AI saw 62.2% vs market's 48.3% (13.9pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 45'** — Over/Under Under 2.5: AI saw 62.2% vs market's 48.3% (13.9pp gap). correctly identified.
Model Performance
- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 3 trades, 2W/0L/1V, +$564.50 (ROI: +91.0%) - **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 5 trades, 5W/0L, +$315.00 (ROI: +89.0%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 3 trades, 3W/0L, +$153.45 (ROI: +113.7%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 1 trades, 1W/0L, +$64.20 (ROI: +107.0%) - **S5.1_Pre**: 2 trades, 2W/0L, +$46.81 (ROI: +120.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 41–59 in Sevilla's deficit. Sevilla had 12 shots (5 on target) versus Real Madrid's 12 (1 on target). Expected goals: Sevilla 0.59 — Real Madrid 1.03. Corners: 3-4.
Verdict
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +94.7% ROI. Top performer: oddsflow_core_v8.1 at +$564.50.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Away | 30.2% / 27.7% / 44.8% |
| Asian handicap | +0.25 | 51.8% |
| Over / Under | 2.75 | 50.8% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The market slightly undervalued the certainty of a significantly low-scoring match, despite leaning Under.
The match between Sevilla and Real Madrid concluded with a 0-1 victory for Real Madrid. In the 1x2 market, Real Madrid was correctly identified as the market favorite with an implied win probability of 44.84%, and they ultimately secured the win. On the Asian Handicap of -0.25, Real Madrid's implied probability to cover was 51.81%, and their 1-0 victory meant the bet was a winner. The most notable insight came from the Totals market (Over/Under 2.75). While the market slightly leaned towards the Under with an implied probability of 51.81%, the actual total of 1 goal suggests a stronger value signal on the Under than indicated by the closing line. Bookmakers slightly underestimated the extent of the low-scoring affair, creating a positive expected value opportunity for bettors on the Under.
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +94.7% ROI on 14 trades. Top performer: Oddsflow Core Strategy at +$564.50.
See AI signals as they happen
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