Sevilla2 - 1Atletico Madrid
SevillaHow did AI turn 10 trades into +$4646 profit?
Match Overview
Sevilla hosted Atletico Madrid in the La Liga, finishing 2-1. Goals: A. Adams (10' pen), J. Bonar (35'), N. Gudelj (45'). OddsFlow deployed 10 trades across 1 wave, achieving 60% precision with a net result of +$4645.70 (ROI: +69.4%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap line moved from 0.25 to -0.25; the Over/Under stayed at 2.5 with Over odds moving from 1.95 to 2.01; the home moneyline shortened from 3.22 to 2.3.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 50' (Score: 2-1) **Context:** Sevilla leading 2-1 at 50'. N. Gudelj scored moments ago. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Moneyline and Over/Under markets, targeting Atletico Madrid -0.5 and Atletico Madrid -1 and Sevilla and Over 3.5 and Atletico Madrid 0. Average expected value was 33.1%, with a combined stake of $6695. The sharpest edge was on Atletico Madrid -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 94.0% probability versus the market's implied 51.3% — a 42.8 percentage point gap at odds of 1.95. **Result:** 6 of 10 trades won, netting +$4645.70.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 51'** — Asian Handicap Atletico Madrid -1: AI saw 94.0% vs market's 51.3% (42.8pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 50'** — Asian Handicap Atletico Madrid -0.5: AI saw 78.2% vs market's 36.4% (41.9pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 50'** — Asian Handicap Atletico Madrid -0.5: AI saw 77.2% vs market's 36.4% (40.8pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 51'** — Asian Handicap Atletico Madrid -1: AI saw 93.9% vs market's 54.1% (39.9pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 51'** — Asian Handicap Atletico Madrid 0: AI saw 77.8% vs market's 44.4% (33.4pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.
Model Performance
- **system4_MC_v10**: 5 trades, 3W/1L/1V, +$2469.70 (ROI: +73.8%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 5 trades, 3W/1L/1V, +$2176.00 (ROI: +65.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 32%–68% in Sevilla's deficit. Sevilla had 11 shots (2 on target) versus Atletico Madrid's 13 (2 on target). Expected goals: Sevilla 1.78 — Atletico Madrid 0.76. Corners: 6-6.
Verdict
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +69.4% ROI. Top performer: system4_MC_v10 at +$2469.70.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Home | 43.5% / 29.2% / 30.0% |
| Asian handicap | -0.25 | 50.5% |
| Over / Under | 2.5 | 49.8% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The market significantly underestimated the probability of Over 2.5 Goals.
The La Liga clash between Sevilla and Atletico Madrid concluded 2-1 in favor of Sevilla. In the 1x2 market, Sevilla's win probability was assessed at 43.48% by the model, indicating a potential slight undervaluation given the actual outcome. For the Asian Handicap, Sevilla at -0.25 had a 50.51% chance to cover. They successfully covered the spread with their 2-1 victory, suggesting fair pricing or marginal value. However, the most notable inefficiency was observed in the Goals Over/Under market. With a closing line of 2.5 goals, the market leaned towards the Under with a 52.91% probability, while the Over was priced at 49.75%. The match ultimately saw 3 goals, hitting the Over. This discrepancy highlights a clear **EV+ opportunity** for those who backed the Over 2.5 goals, as the market sentiment incorrectly favored a lower-scoring affair.
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +69.4% ROI on 10 trades. Top performer: HDP Sniper at +$2469.70.
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