Real Sociedad3 - 4Valencia
Real SociedadWhy did AI enter 6 times at 0', 10', 23', 49', 58', 63' — and still finish $-233?
Match Overview
Real Sociedad hosted Valencia in the La Liga, finishing 3-4. Goals: A. Munoz (3'), J. Guerra (8'), H. Duro (22'), C. Tarrega (60' OG), O. Oskarsson (63'), G. Rodriguez (89'), J. Guerra (90'). Valencia received a red card (E. Comert, 70'). OddsFlow deployed 9 trades across 6 waves, achieving 33% precision with a net result of $-232.80 (ROI: -52.4%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap line moved from -0.5 to -0.25; the home moneyline drifted out from 2.04 to 2.3.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 0' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 0'. 1 model (S5.1_Pre) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Over 2.5. Average expected value was 12.7%, with a combined stake of $10. The sharpest edge was on Over 2.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 58.7% probability versus the market's implied 52.1% — a 6.6 percentage point gap at odds of 1.92. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$9.20. ### Wave 2 — Minute 10' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1 after J. Guerra's equalizer at 8'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Real Sociedad -0.5. Average expected value was 5.3%, with a combined stake of $60. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-60.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 23' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1 after H. Duro's equalizer at 22'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Moneyline and Asian Handicap markets, targeting Draw and Real Sociedad +0.5. Average expected value was 26.9%, with a combined stake of $194. The sharpest edge was on Real Sociedad +0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 69.0% probability versus the market's implied 43.5% — a 25.6 percentage point gap at odds of 2.3. **Result:** All 4 trades lost, netting $-194.00. ### Wave 4 — Minute 49' (Score: 1-2) **Context:** Valencia leading 1-2 at 49'. 1 model (system4_MC_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Valencia. Average expected value was 6.1%, with a combined stake of $60. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$39.00. ### Wave 5 — Minute 58' (Score: 1-2) **Context:** Valencia leading 1-2 at 58'. Real Sociedad made 3 substitutions. 1 model (system4_BLEND_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Valencia. Average expected value was 6.3%, with a combined stake of $60. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$33.00. ### Wave 6 — Minute 63' (Score: 2-2) **Context:** Level at 2-2 after O. Oskarsson's equalizer at 63'. Real Sociedad made 3 substitutions. 1 model (system4_BLEND_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Draw. Average expected value was 12.4%, with a combined stake of $60. The sharpest edge was on Draw (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 37.8% probability versus the market's implied 21.5% — a 16.3 percentage point gap at odds of 4.65. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-60.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 23'** — Asian Handicap Real Sociedad +0.5: AI saw 69.0% vs market's 43.5% (25.6pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 63'** — Moneyline Draw: AI saw 37.8% vs market's 21.5% (16.3pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.
Model Performance
- **S5.1_Pre**: 1 trades, 1W/0L, +$9.20 (ROI: +92.0%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 2 trades, 1W/1L, $-27.00 (ROI: -22.5%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 4 trades, 1W/3L, $-90.00 (ROI: -47.6%) - **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 2 trades, 0W/2L, $-125.00 (ROI: -100.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 55–45 in Real Sociedad's favor. Real Sociedad had 7 shots (3 on target) versus Valencia's 13 (6 on target). Expected goals: Real Sociedad 1.01 — Valencia 1.58. Corners: 3-2.
Verdict
A tough session at -52.4% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions, though the underlying probability assessments may still prove correct over a larger sample. Top performer: S5.1_Pre at +$9.20.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Home | 42.3% / 28.3% / 29.5% |
| Asian handicap | -0.25 | 50.8% |
| Over / Under | 2.5 | 50.9% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The 1x2 market's strong favoritism for Real Sociedad, despite Valencia securing an away win, indicates a major market inefficiency.
The La Liga clash saw Valencia secure a high-scoring 4-3 away victory against Real Sociedad, with a total of 7 goals. The 1x2 market significantly mispriced this fixture, with the OddsFlow ML model indicating Real Sociedad as the market favorite at 43.48% to win, compared to Valencia's 30.3%. This disparity highlights a clear Value Signal on the away win. In the Asian Handicap market, Real Sociedad was set at -0.25. Valencia, priced at +0.25, had a slightly higher implied probability (51.81%) to cover their spread, which they did convincingly with their outright win. The Over/Under 2.5 goals market also showed a slight lean towards the Over (52.08% implied probability). However, with 7 goals scored, the actual outcome far exceeded expectations, suggesting the market underestimated the game's offensive potential and presented an EV+ opportunity on the Over.
A tough session at -52.4% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions. Top performer: PreMatch Edge at +$9.20.
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