Real Sociedad3 - 1Osasuna
Real Sociedad4 trades, 50% precision — how did AI read this match?
Match Overview
Real Sociedad hosted Osasuna in the La Liga, finishing 3-1. Goals: M. Oyarzabal (24' pen), G. Guedes (28'), G. Guedes (52'), V. Munoz (77'). OddsFlow deployed 4 trades across 1 wave, achieving 50% precision with a net result of +$727.00 (ROI: +25.2%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at -0.5 but home odds shifted from 1.95 to 1.97; the Over/Under line shifted from 2.25 to 2.5.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 25' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Real Sociedad leading 1-0 at 25'. M. Oyarzabal scored moments ago. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Over/Under and Asian Handicap markets, targeting Over 2.5 and Osasuna -1. Average expected value was 29.3%, with a combined stake of $2887. The sharpest edge was on Osasuna -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 89.3% probability versus the market's implied 44.4% — a 44.9 percentage point gap at odds of 2.25. **Result:** 2 of 4 trades won, netting +$727.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Osasuna -1: AI saw 89.3% vs market's 44.4% (44.9pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Osasuna -1: AI saw 88.9% vs market's 44.4% (44.5pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.
Model Performance
- **system4_MC_v10**: 2 trades, 1W/0L/1V, +$363.50 (ROI: +25.3%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 2 trades, 1W/0L/1V, +$363.50 (ROI: +25.1%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 48%–52% in Real Sociedad's deficit. Real Sociedad had 15 shots (6 on target) versus Osasuna's 12 (5 on target). Expected goals: Real Sociedad 1.97 — Osasuna 0.46. Corners: 3-5.
Verdict
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +25.2% ROI. Top performer: system4_MC_v10 at +$363.50.
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +25.2% ROI on 4 trades. Top performer: HDP Sniper at +$363.50.
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