Real Sociedad2 - 0Levante
Real SociedadWhy did AI enter 4 times at 25', 30', 35', 68' — and still finish +$3298?
Match Overview
Real Sociedad hosted Levante in the La Liga, finishing 2-0. Goals: J. Martin (30'), B. Mendez (83'). OddsFlow deployed 12 trades across 4 waves, achieving 75% precision with a net result of +$3298.09 (ROI: +41.3%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at -1 but home odds shifted from 1.9 to 2.04; the home moneyline drifted out from 1.52 to 1.62.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 25' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 25'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Moneyline markets, targeting Levante -1 and Real Sociedad. Average expected value was 11.7%, with a combined stake of $1500. The sharpest edge was on Levante -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 67.5% probability versus the market's implied 54.8% — a 12.7 percentage point gap at odds of 1.825. **Result:** 1 of 3 trades won, netting $-714.50. ### Wave 2 — Minute 30' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Real Sociedad leading 1-0 at 30'. J. Martin scored moments ago. 2 models (system4_HYBRID_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Moneyline and Asian Handicap markets, targeting Real Sociedad and Levante -1. Average expected value was 25.8%, with a combined stake of $3043. The sharpest edge was on Levante -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 77.8% probability versus the market's implied 54.8% — a 23.0 percentage point gap at odds of 1.825. **Result:** 2 of 3 trades won, netting +$1300.74. ### Wave 3 — Minute 35' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Real Sociedad leading 1-0 at 35'. J. Martin scored moments ago. 3 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_HYBRID_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Levante -1.5. Average expected value was 29.7%, with a combined stake of $1944. The sharpest edge was on Levante -1.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 78.6% probability versus the market's implied 50.6% — a 27.9 percentage point gap at odds of 1.975. **Result:** All 3 trades won, netting +$1855.35. ### Wave 4 — Minute 68' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Real Sociedad leading 1-0 at 68'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Over 1.5. Average expected value was 9.8%, with a combined stake of $1500. The sharpest edge was on Over 1.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 70.0% probability versus the market's implied 63.7% — a 6.3 percentage point gap at odds of 1.571. **Result:** All 3 trades won, netting +$856.50.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 35'** — Asian Handicap Levante -1.5: AI saw 78.6% vs market's 50.6% (27.9pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 35'** — Asian Handicap Levante -1.5: AI saw 79.6% vs market's 51.9% (27.7pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 35'** — Asian Handicap Levante -1.5: AI saw 78.2% vs market's 50.6% (27.6pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 30'** — Asian Handicap Levante -1: AI saw 77.8% vs market's 54.8% (23.0pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 30'** — Moneyline Real Sociedad: AI saw 79.2% vs market's 63.7% (15.6pp gap). correctly identified.
Model Performance
- **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 5 trades, 4W/0L/1V, +$1962.30 (ROI: +53.0%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 4 trades, 3W/1L, +$989.67 (ROI: +36.6%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 3 trades, 2W/1L, +$346.13 (ROI: +22.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 64%–36% in Real Sociedad's favor. Real Sociedad had 15 shots (4 on target) versus Levante's 3 (2 on target). Expected goals: Real Sociedad 1.74 — Levante 0.07. Corners: 9-2.
Verdict
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +41.3% ROI. Top performer: system4_HYBRID_v10 at +$1962.30.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Home | 61.7% / 23.7% / 18.2% |
| Asian handicap | -1 | 49.0% |
| Over / Under | 2.75 | 54.4% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The market significantly mispriced the Total Goals line, leaning Over 2.75 when the match ended Under.
Real Sociedad secured a comfortable 2-0 victory over Levante. The 1X2 market correctly identified Real Sociedad as the clear favorite (61.73% implied probability), aligning with the outright win. However, the Asian Handicap market showed a slight inefficiency, with Real Sociedad (-1) closing at 49.02% probability to cover, while the home side ultimately covered by winning with a two-goal margin. The most significant market inefficiency was observed in the Totals (Over/Under) market. Despite the closing line favoring Over 2.75 goals at 54.35% probability, the match concluded with only 2 goals, falling squarely into the Under category. This represents a clear instance of Closing Line Value (CLV) on the Under, indicating that the market sentiment was skewed towards a higher-scoring affair than what transpired.
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +41.3% ROI on 12 trades. Top performer: Oddsflow Beta at +$1962.30.
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