Real Sociedad0 - 1Getafe
Real SociedadWhy did AI enter 7 times at 15', 25', 30', 51', 54', 65', 71' — and still finish +$4566?
Match Overview
Real Sociedad hosted Getafe in the La Liga, finishing 0-1. Goals: J. Gorrotxategi (29' OG). OddsFlow deployed 16 trades across 7 waves, achieving 75% precision with a net result of +$4565.97 (ROI: +52.6%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap line moved from -0.5 to -0.25; the home moneyline drifted out from 1.92 to 2.18.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 15' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 15'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Getafe -0.5. Average expected value was 22.7%, with a combined stake of $200. The sharpest edge was on Getafe -0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 62.8% probability versus the market's implied 42.6% — a 20.3 percentage point gap at odds of 2.35. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$270.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 25' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 25'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Over/Under markets, targeting Getafe 0 and Over 1.5. Average expected value was 15.0%, with a combined stake of $2000. The sharpest edge was on Getafe 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 64.5% probability versus the market's implied 44.4% — a 20.0 percentage point gap at odds of 2.25. **Result:** 2 of 4 trades won, netting +$225.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 30' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Getafe leading 0-1 at 30'. J. Gorrotxategi scored moments ago. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Moneyline and Asian Handicap markets, targeting Getafe and Real Sociedad +0.5. Average expected value was 19.3%, with a combined stake of $2017. The sharpest edge was on Real Sociedad +0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 76.9% probability versus the market's implied 43.5% — a 33.4 percentage point gap at odds of 2.3. **Result:** 3 of 4 trades won, netting +$787.10. ### Wave 4 — Minute 51' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Getafe leading 0-1 at 51'. 1 model (system4_BLEND_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 2.5. Average expected value was 7.9%, with a combined stake of $500. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$285.50. ### Wave 5 — Minute 54' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Getafe leading 0-1 at 54'. 1 model (system4_MC_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 2.5. Average expected value was 8.5%, with a combined stake of $500. The sharpest edge was on Under 2.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 72.1% probability versus the market's implied 66.7% — a 5.5 percentage point gap at odds of 1.5. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$250.00. ### Wave 6 — Minute 65' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Getafe leading 0-1 at 65'. 2 models (oddsflow_core_v8.1, system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Over/Under and Asian Handicap and Moneyline markets, targeting Under 2.5 and Real Sociedad +0.5 and Getafe and Getafe 0. Average expected value was 28.8%, with a combined stake of $2727. The sharpest edge was on Real Sociedad +0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 82.1% probability versus the market's implied 46.5% — a 35.5 percentage point gap at odds of 2.15. **Result:** 3 of 4 trades won, netting +$2005.37. ### Wave 7 — Minute 71' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Getafe leading 0-1 at 71'. 1 model (system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 2.5. Average expected value was 39.6%, with a combined stake of $743. The sharpest edge was on Under 2.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 87.0% probability versus the market's implied 50.0% — a 37.0 percentage point gap at odds of 2. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$743.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 71'** — Over/Under Under 2.5: AI saw 87.0% vs market's 50.0% (37.0pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 66'** — Asian Handicap Real Sociedad +0.5: AI saw 82.1% vs market's 46.5% (35.5pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 30'** — Asian Handicap Real Sociedad +0.5: AI saw 76.9% vs market's 43.5% (33.4pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 66'** — Asian Handicap Getafe 0: AI saw 75.1% vs market's 45.5% (29.6pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 30'** — Asian Handicap Real Sociedad +0.5: AI saw 69.7% vs market's 43.5% (26.2pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.
Model Performance
- **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 4 trades, 3W/0L/1V, +$2293.87 (ROI: +77.2%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 5 trades, 4W/1L, +$1354.60 (ROI: +53.8%) - **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 2 trades, 2W/0L, +$724.50 (ROI: +103.5%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 5 trades, 3W/2L, +$193.00 (ROI: +7.7%)
Match Statistics
Real Sociedad had 12 shots (4 on target) versus Getafe's 1 (0 on target). Expected goals: Real Sociedad 1.47 — Getafe 0.18. Corners: 6-1.
Verdict
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +52.6% ROI. Top performer: system4_HYBRID_v10 at +$2293.87.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Home | 45.9% / 31.6% / 25.3% |
| Asian handicap | -0.25 | 54.0% |
| Over / Under | 2 | 54.6% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The market significantly mispriced the Under 2.0 goals, presenting a strong EV+ opportunity.
In the Real Sociedad vs Getafe fixture, Getafe secured an unexpected 0-1 victory, defying the closing 1x2 market which heavily favored Real Sociedad with a 45.87% win probability. This outcome represents significant Closing Line Value (CLV) for Getafe backers. Furthermore, the market's expectation for the Totals market (Over/Under 2.0 goals) was a strong lean towards the Over (54.64% probability). However, only 1 goal was scored, resulting in a clear Under 2.0 outcome. This highlights a pronounced market inefficiency in the totals, where the price on Under was a strong EV+ opportunity. The handicap market also saw Real Sociedad (-0.25) fail to cover, adding to the market's misjudgment of Getafe's true strength.
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +52.6% ROI on 16 trades. Top performer: Oddsflow Beta at +$2293.87.
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