Real Sociedad3 - 3Alaves
Real SociedadWhy did AI enter 6 times at 25', 38', 49', 52', 67', 74' — and still finish +$10367?
Match Overview
Real Sociedad hosted Alaves in the La Liga, finishing 3-3. Goals: D. Caleta-Car (3' OG), L. Sucic (14'), I. Diabate (24'), B. Turrientes (27'), A. Sivera (27' OG), O. Oskarsson (60'), O. Oskarsson (61'), L. Boye (90'). Real Sociedad received a red card (S. Gomez, 90'). OddsFlow deployed 20 trades across 6 waves, achieving 85% precision with a net result of +$10367.27 (ROI: +98.6%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at -0.75 but home odds shifted from 2.05 to 1.96; the Over/Under line shifted from 2.25 to 2.5.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 25' (Score: 1-2) **Context:** Alaves leading 1-2 at 25'. I. Diabate scored moments ago. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Over/Under and Moneyline markets, targeting Real Sociedad -0.5 and Over 4.5 and Real Sociedad +0.5 and Real Sociedad 0 and Real Sociedad and Over 5.5. Average expected value was 22.4%, with a combined stake of $6251. The sharpest edge was on Real Sociedad +0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 84.9% probability versus the market's implied 50.6% — a 34.2 percentage point gap at odds of 1.975. **Result:** 10 of 12 trades won, netting +$5141.52. ### Wave 2 — Minute 38' (Score: 2-2) **Context:** Level at 2-2 after A. Sivera's equalizer at 27'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Alaves -0.5. Average expected value was 3.0%, with a combined stake of $1000. **Result:** All 2 trades won, netting +$887.50. ### Wave 3 — Minute 49' (Score: 2-2) **Context:** Level at 2-2, 49'. 1 model (system4_MC_v10) entered Moneyline and Asian Handicap markets, targeting Draw and Alaves 0. Average expected value was 5.1%, with a combined stake of $1000. The sharpest edge was on Draw (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 38.5% probability versus the market's implied 32.3% — a 6.2 percentage point gap at odds of 3.1. **Result:** 1 of 2 trades won, netting +$1050.00. ### Wave 4 — Minute 52' (Score: 2-2) **Context:** Level at 2-2, 52'. 1 model (system4_BLEND_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Draw. Average expected value was 6.1%, with a combined stake of $500. The sharpest edge was on Draw (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 33.9% probability versus the market's implied 27.8% — a 6.1 percentage point gap at odds of 3.6. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$1300.00. ### Wave 5 — Minute 67' (Score: 3-2) **Context:** Real Sociedad leading 3-2 at 67'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Alaves -1. Average expected value was 53.5%, with a combined stake of $1234. The sharpest edge was on Alaves -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 95.5% probability versus the market's implied 42.6% — a 52.9 percentage point gap at odds of 2.35. **Result:** All 2 trades won, netting +$1604.00. ### Wave 6 — Minute 74' (Score: 3-2) **Context:** Real Sociedad leading 3-2 at 74'. 1 model (system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Alaves 0. Average expected value was 25.6%, with a combined stake of $530. The sharpest edge was on Alaves 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 80.2% probability versus the market's implied 58.0% — a 22.2 percentage point gap at odds of 1.725. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$384.25.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 69'** — Asian Handicap Alaves -1: AI saw 95.5% vs market's 42.6% (52.9pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 67'** — Asian Handicap Alaves -1: AI saw 94.3% vs market's 44.4% (49.9pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Real Sociedad +0.5: AI saw 84.9% vs market's 50.6% (34.2pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Real Sociedad +0.5: AI saw 84.5% vs market's 50.6% (33.9pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 25'** — Over/Under Over 4.5: AI saw 71.6% vs market's 43.5% (28.2pp gap). correctly identified.
Model Performance
- **system4_BLEND_v10**: 10 trades, 9W/1L, +$5453.10 (ROI: +103.6%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 10 trades, 8W/1L/1V, +$4914.17 (ROI: +93.6%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 54%–46% in Real Sociedad's favor. Real Sociedad had 12 shots (4 on target) versus Alaves's 12 (2 on target). Expected goals: Real Sociedad 0.94 — Alaves 1.01. Corners: 8-5.
Verdict
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +98.6% ROI. Top performer: system4_BLEND_v10 at +$5453.10.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Home | 57.5% / 26.0% / 20.0% |
| Asian handicap | -0.75 | 51.0% |
| Over / Under | 2.5 | 54.0% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
Underestimation of Goals (Over 2.5)
The La Liga fixture between Real Sociedad and Alaves ended in a thrilling 3-3 draw. The pre-match 1x2 market heavily favored Real Sociedad with a 57.47% win probability, while a draw was priced at only 25.97%. This indicates a significant market inefficiency in predicting the final outcome, as the match defied expectations of a comfortable home win. On the Asian Handicap market, Real Sociedad (-0.75) failed to cover, with the market slightly leaning towards Alaves covering their +0.75 line (51.55%). The most pronounced error was in the Totals market. With an Over/Under 2.5 line, the market showed a slight lean towards the Over (54.05% probability). However, the match exploded for 6 goals, creating substantial Closing Line Value (CLV) for Over bettors, proving the market significantly underestimated the goal-scoring potential. The market sentiment was clearly skewed towards a lower-scoring affair or a comfortable home win.
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +98.6% ROI on 20 trades. Top performer: Active Trader at +$5453.10.
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