Real Madrid2 - 1Rayo Vallecano
Real MadridWhat went wrong? 1 trades, $-158 — the AI's post-mortem.
Match Overview
Real Madrid hosted Rayo Vallecano in the La Liga, finishing 2-1. Goals: Vinicius Junior (15'), J. de Frutos (49'), K. Mbappe (90' pen). Rayo Vallecano received a red card (P. Ciss, 80'). OddsFlow deployed 1 trades across 1 wave, achieving 0% precision with a net result of $-158.04 (ROI: -100.0%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap line moved from -1.5 to -1.75; the Over/Under line shifted from 3.25 to 3.5.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 22' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Real Madrid leading 1-0 at 22'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Real Madrid -1.25. Average expected value was 5.2%, with a combined stake of $158. The sharpest edge was on Real Madrid -1.25 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 60.0% probability versus the market's implied 54.8% — a 5.2 percentage point gap at odds of 1.825. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-158.04.
Model Performance
- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 0W/1L, $-158.04 (ROI: -100.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 57%–43% in Real Madrid's favor. Real Madrid had 16 shots (6 on target) versus Rayo Vallecano's 11 (4 on target). Expected goals: Real Madrid 2.14 — Rayo Vallecano 0.96. Corners: 9-4.
Verdict
A tough session at -100.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions, though the underlying probability assessments may still prove correct over a larger sample.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Home | 81.3% / 15.2% / 7.3% |
| Asian handicap | -1.75 | 54.4% |
| Over / Under | 3.5 | 51.8% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The market significantly mispriced the total goals, failing to predict the Under 3.5 outcome.
Real Madrid secured a 2-1 victory against Rayo Vallecano. The 1X2 market accurately priced Real Madrid as heavy favorites with an 81.3% win probability, confirming their home win. However, significant market inefficiencies emerged in other crucial betting markets. In the Asian Handicap, Real Madrid (-1.75) failed to cover, winning by only one goal despite a 54.35% market probability of them covering. The most pronounced inefficiency was in the Goals Over/Under 3.5 market. The closing line showed a slight lean towards the Over (51.81% probability), yet the match concluded with only 3 goals, hitting the Under. This indicated a clear Value Signal for Under 3.5.
A tough session at -100.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions.
See AI signals as they happen
This report shows settled results. Get real-time AI signals during live matches.