Real Madrid4 - 1Elche
Real MadridWhy did AI enter 2 times at 25', 43' — and still finish $-4009?
Match Overview
Real Madrid hosted Elche in the La Liga, finishing 4-1. Goals: A. Rudiger (39'), F. Valverde (44'), D. Huijsen (66'), M. A. Moran (85' OG), A. Guler (89'). OddsFlow deployed 6 trades across 2 waves, achieving 0% precision with a net result of $-4009.00 (ROI: -100.0%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap line moved from -1.75 to -1.5; the Over/Under stayed at 3.25 with Over odds moving from 1.81 to 1.93; the home moneyline drifted out from 1.19 to 1.34.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 25' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 25'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Moneyline and Asian Handicap markets, targeting Draw and Elche -1. Average expected value was 22.7%, with a combined stake of $2608. The sharpest edge was on Elche -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 80.9% probability versus the market's implied 46.5% — a 34.4 percentage point gap at odds of 2.15. **Result:** All 4 trades lost, netting $-2608.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 43' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Real Madrid leading 1-0 at 43'. A. Rudiger scored moments ago. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Elche -1.5. Average expected value was 50.4%, with a combined stake of $1401. The sharpest edge was on Elche -1.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 90.8% probability versus the market's implied 42.6% — a 48.2 percentage point gap at odds of 2.35. **Result:** All 2 trades lost, netting $-1401.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 43'** — Asian Handicap Elche -1.5: AI saw 90.8% vs market's 42.6% (48.2pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 43'** — Asian Handicap Elche -1.5: AI saw 90.3% vs market's 42.6% (47.8pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Elche -1: AI saw 80.9% vs market's 46.5% (34.4pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Elche -1: AI saw 80.6% vs market's 46.5% (34.1pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 25'** — Moneyline Draw: AI saw 37.3% vs market's 23.1% (14.2pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.
Model Performance
- **system4_MC_v10**: 3 trades, 0W/3L, $-1998.00 (ROI: -100.0%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 3 trades, 0W/3L, $-2011.00 (ROI: -100.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 47%–53% in Real Madrid's deficit. Real Madrid had 14 shots (6 on target) versus Elche's 8 (0 on target). Expected goals: Real Madrid 1.09 — Elche 0.5. Corners: 5-3.
Verdict
A tough session at -100.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions, though the underlying probability assessments may still prove correct over a larger sample. Top performer: system4_MC_v10 at $-1998.00.
A tough session at -100.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions. Top performer: HDP Sniper at $-1998.00.
See AI signals as they happen
This report shows settled results. Get real-time AI signals during live matches.